A low energy Donald Trump launched his 2024 presidential campaign last night.

Most people watching television probably missed it and even traditionally Trump-friendly media downplayed it, but it would be a mistake to ignore it. Trump made crystal clear that if he wins the presidency he intends to rule as an authoritarian.

There are still some uncalled races in this year’s midterm elections, but the broad outlines of what happened are pretty clear.

Here are a few observations:

In an era of consecutive change elections, Bruce Mehlman notes the 2022 midterms were the “least-change-y change-election” since 2002.

Voters sought stability and many first-time Republicans challengers scared them more than the status quo.

It will take days — or even weeks — to learn which party will be in control of the House and Senate next year.

In the Senate, we’re waiting on Nevada and Arizona. Alaska will be longer due to ranked-choice voting. Georgia is going to a December 6 runoff.

With the big caveat that there are still many uncalled races, we’ve seen very few signs of a red wave in tonight’s election results. It’s not even a red ripple.

This election is more like a rip tide or rip current.

One of the great secrets of political journalism is that not much actually happens on the Election Day. The real action is tonight when the first polls close at 6 p.m. ET.

But while we wait, here are some things to note:

Here is an hour-by-hour guide to watching the midterm election returns tonight.

As I noted earlier, some races in the the earlier states which may be good indicators for what to expect nationally.

We may not know which party controls the House or Senate for several days or even weeks after Election Night, but there are some key races which are good early indicators.

For the Senate, polls close in New Hampshire at 7 p.m. ET where Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) finds herself in a very tight race. If Hassan loses to Don Bolduc (R) — who most analysts considered a very weak candidate — that’s a pretty good sign a red wave is coming. If Hassan wins by a solid margin, that will lead many to question the projections that show so many races this year a coin flip.