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When Will Kevin McCarthy Be Forced Out?

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At first glance, there seems to be little consensus from Political Wire members about when Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) might be forced out of his job.

The chart slightly peaks around September when the U.S. is expected to hit the federal debt ceiling.

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The Week Ahead

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Now comes the hard part.

After going 15 rounds to limp into the speaker’s chair shortly after midnight on Saturday, Kevin McCarthy must now try to lead a House Republican majority that is both narrow and bitterly divided. The House convenes at 5:00 p.m. on Monday for an uncertain vote on the rules package McCarthy hammered out with Freedom Caucus rebels.

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How Long Will Kevin McCarthy Last as Speaker?

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Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) made massive concessions to a group of 20 Republican holdouts in order to finally secure the votes he needed for the gavel in the 15th round of voting. We still don’t know everything he promised.

As a result, he’s likely to be dramatically weaker than his predecessors.

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Lucky 14?

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Kevin McCarthy hopes to be speaker by midnight as the House prepares for a late-night 14th roll call.

Here’s some of what you may have missed on Political Wire today…

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How McCarthy Can Be Elected Speaker Tonight

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The House has voted to adjourn until 10 p.m. while Republicans wait for Reps. Ken Buck (R-CO) and Wesley Hunt (R-TX) to return to the Capitol.

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) claims that he now has the votes.

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Member Briefing with Maggie Haberman

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An invite for members: A conversation with Maggie Haberman, reporter for the New York Times and author of Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and the Breaking of America.

The virtual event is on January 25, 2023 at 6 p.m. ET.

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The Republican Civil War Is Here

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The inability of House Republicans to elect a speaker isn’t just about Kevin McCarthy.

It’s true he doesn’t really stand for anything. It’s true he’s despised by many conservatives. It’s true many GOP lawmakers don’t trust him.

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Kevin McCarthy Is Already Fighting for the Second Ballot

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Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) admitted in a private meeting with House Republicans that he doesn’t have the votes to be elected speaker on the first ballot.

He then tore into the House Freedom Caucus members who spoke against him.

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Republicans Will Try to End the Drama Quickly

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If this morning’s reporting is correct, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will not have the votes to be elected speaker at 12 p.m. ET today.

That means there will be at least one more round of votes.

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The Week Ahead

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It’s all about Tuesday.

The 118th Congress opens. Senators like Patrick Leahy and Richard Shelby are gone; new senators include John Fetterman and J.D. Vance. Democrat Maxwell Frost of Florida enters the House at age 25. Incoming House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries becomes the highest-ranking Black congressperson ever.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

Praise for Political Wire

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— Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

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— Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

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