Kevin McCarthy’s Moment of Truth

Punchbowl News: “McCarthy and his top aides remain optimistic that, given enough time, they can beat back the roughly dozen hardline conservative Republicans threatening his candidacy. McCarthy told reporters on Monday that today will be exciting and ‘good,’ although he didn’t elaborate on why…”

“Yet privately, some of the lawmakers closest to McCarthy continue to tell us that they don’t see a path for the California Republican to win the speakership. Not on the first ballot, or the second, or any subsequent ballots. Some McCarthy backers – lawmakers and aides in and outside the leadership – don’t believe he can or should stay on the floor for more than two rounds of votes before bowing out. One close ally of McCarthy pegged his chances of winning the speakership at 5%.”

“This isn’t to say that McCarthy can’t win. He can. McCarthy continued to negotiate with conservative hardliners into Monday evening, seeking a way to overcome their opposition…”

“But McCarthy is also running out of cards to play. In an even more troublesome sign, no matter what McCarthy gives away, hardline conservatives aren’t moving to his corner. In fact, they’re becoming more dug in against him.”

Playbook: “McCarthy still hasn’t clinched the votes he needs, and the day could drag late into the night, we’re told, as Republicans grapple with choosing their leader.”

“Be prepared for surprises and a lot of drama. Even veteran lawmakers who emerged from meetings with McCarthy on Monday evening weren’t entirely sure how this will all shake out. We’re told that McCarthy’s plan, however, is to continue voting — over and over again — in a bid to wear down his detractors until he gets the gavel.”

“But even McCarthy allies are now acknowledging he can’t win the first vote. One told us Monday night there are currently about a dozen members opposed.”