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Connecticut Should Go First

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Since Democrats are rethinking the 2024 presidential primary calendar, I thought I’d make the case — along with Colin McEnroe — for Connecticut to be the first primary state.

Although I currently live in New York, Connecticut is where I was born and raised. I’ve literally been to every part of the state.

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How Democrats Turned the Midterms Into a Choice

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Democratic pollster Jefrey Pollock does a good job showing how Democrats turned the midterms from a referendum into a choice.

A combination of flawed candidates endorsed by Donald Trump along with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade — coupled with strong Democratic incumbents running on their record of passing historic legislation — allowed voters to ignore any misgivings they might have had about the party in power.

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Be Wary of Those Trump vs. DeSantis Polls

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We’ve seen two new polls this week that show Donald Trump trailing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

A Wall Street Journal poll shows DeSantis leading Trump, 52% to 38%.

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The Week Ahead

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The Georgia Senate runoff is in the books and prospective 2024 presidential candidates are mulling their next steps over the holidays, so the political focus has shifted back to Capitol Hill and the dwindling days for congressional action.

Federal spending expires on Friday, and while most expect another continuing resolution running through at least December 23, Republican leaders remain divided, with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell seeking a short-term fix and House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy holding off for a longer-term agreement after the party takes control of the House in early January. The two parties are just $26 billion apart on a topline number for an omnibus deal, but the remaining divisions are ideological, not financial.

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What You May Have Missed

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Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has traded her “D” for an “I”, but it remains unclear how it will affect the next two years on Capitol Hill, and the battle for Senate control in 2024.

Here’s what you may have missed on Political Wire today…

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Is an ‘Independent Caucus’ Possible in the Senate?

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Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic party certainly jumbles thing up, though it seems — at least for now — that nothing structural will happen to the 51 to 49 Democratic majority.

However, there are two things that I’m curious about.

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Is Joe Manchin Next to Leave the Democrats?

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Sen. Kyrsten Sinema sent shockwaves through the U.S. Senate this morning with her announcement that she’s leaving the Democratic party.

The decision won’t tip the balance of power in the narrowly-divided chamber — at least not yet. Sinema said she wouldn’t caucus with Republicans. 

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Now McCarthy Needs to Look Over His Shoulder

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Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is trying to project an air of inevitability – that he will be House speaker no matter how long it takes.

A key part of that strategy is to make sure the rest of the House GOP leadership is behind him — especially House Minority Whip Steve Scalise.

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Is the End of Trump Near?

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Bill Kristol thinks tonight’s Senate runoff in Georgia could be the beginning of the end for Donald Trump.

He speculates that a decisive Herschel Walker (R) loss in the Senate runoff — such as 53% to 47% — will finally force Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to mobilize Republican donors against Trump.

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What You May Have Missed

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The final votes of the 2022 midterms will be cast tomorrow in Georgia, and Arizona has closed the books on its own November election.

Here’s what you may have missed today on Political Wire…

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51 Senate Seats Is Much More Than 50 Seats

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Democrats will control the U.S. Senate next year no matter what happens in the Georgia U.S. Senate runoff tomorrow.

But if Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) wins re-election, it would make a big difference to Democrats.

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The Week Ahead

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The 2022 midterm elections come to a close on Tuesday with the Georgia Senate runoff, where Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) has the wind at his back.

Though polls still show a tight race, Warnock has led consistently, and early voting data hint at a Warnock win. This is Warnock’s fourth time before the voters for this seat in less than two years, and he led the vote in each of the previous three. Betting markets give Warnock a 90% chance of victory.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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