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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

The Iran War Has Changed the World Forever

October 19, 2026 · 8:31 am ET · Leave a Comment

Foreign Policy: “Many of the immediate consequences of the Israeli-American war with Iran are already clear. The further emergence of drones and missiles as dominant weapons of war; the danger to the global economy from the threats to vital chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb; and the inadequacy of U.S. weapons procurement, among other issues, have garnered widespread and entirely merited attention.”

“Yet as important enough as those developments are, the Iran conflict could also have far wider and longer-term implications—changes that could be truly transformative for the Middle East region and the rest of the world. Decades from now, we might look back on this conflict as a watershed event that fundamentally reshaped what had been bedrock principles of modern geopolitics.”

Foreign Affairs, National Security

How Hegseth’s Plan for a Reality-TV Execution Imploded

October 16, 2026 · 6:39 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The Atlantic: “Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has enjoyed President Trump’s full support for any number of Trumpian initiatives: staging macho, campy shows of military bravado; trashing political opponents and the press, often by name; dissing European allies; posting videos of air strikes on suspected drug boats off the coast of Latin America.”

“But Hegseth apparently crossed a line with his revelation last week that the execution by firing squad of a military death-row inmate would be livestreamed to the world. Even a president who’d brought a bloody mixed-martial-arts fight to the White House lawn apparently didn’t relish the thought of an afternoon spent watching Army soldiers shoot bullets into a paraplegic.”

Crime and Punishment, National Security

Musk Approached Trump to Slow Down Starlink in Ukraine

October 16, 2026 · 4:35 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Elon Musk approached Donald Trump with the idea of slowing down Starlink in Ukraine,” The Telegraph reports.

“The billionaire tech entrepreneur approached the U.S. president with the proposal to introduce speed limits on the system, which hampered Ukraine’s drone defenses.”

“One of the sources said Mr Trump ‘agreed’ with Mr Musk’s suggestion, paving the way for the Pentagon to execute the slowdown on Starshield, the military-grade version of the satellite communications system.”

Foreign Affairs, National Security, White House

Ousted General Warned of Missile Defense Shortage

October 15, 2026 · 10:15 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“In late December, two months before the U.S. war with Iran began, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George warned that his service was critically short on missile defense munitions and that the shortage would last another five years,” CBS News reports.

“Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ousted George in April, as the Iran war was underway.”

National Security

Order to Limit Starshield Came From Inside White House

October 15, 2026 · 8:39 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The order to limit a satellite system used by Ukraine ​for battlefield communications and drone operations came from inside the White House,” Reuters reports.

“The officials said ‌leaders at the Defense Department received a message that the SpaceX Starshield service for the Ukrainian military needed to be slowed.”

Foreign Affairs, National Security, White House

Senators Demand Probe Into Ukraine Satellite Disruption

October 15, 2026 · 5:38 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“A bipartisan group of senators on Thursday demanded an investigation into disruptions to critical satellite communications and intelligence-sharing systems in Ukraine that they warned had undermined the country’s defenses against Russian attacks and endangered U.S. military and diplomatic personnel,” the New York Times reports.

National Security, Senate

Quote of the Day

October 15, 2026 · 1:07 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Right now we are defending U.S. assets there, so there is no war as we speak.”

— Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA), quoted by the HuffPost, on Iran.

House of Representatives, National Security

U.S. Considering Using ‘Mother of All Bombs’ Against Iran

October 15, 2026 · 8:31 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The U.S. military has developed new strike plans that include potentially using the so-called ‘mother of all bombs’ to target Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites should President Donald Trump give the order to resume combat operations either before or after the midterm elections,” CNN reports.

Foreign Affairs, National Security

U.S. Is Sending Hundreds of Troops to Latin America

October 14, 2026 · 3:10 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The United States is sending several hundred Army soldiers to train and conduct exercises with local forces in Latin America as the Pentagon expands its campaign to combat drug trafficking in the region,” the New York Times reports.

Foreign Affairs, National Security

Trump Debates Calling Off Livestream of Firing Squad

October 14, 2026 · 12:02 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump and his advisers are debating whether to call off plans to livestream the firing squad execution of the Fort Hood shooter, with Trump having remarked privately that he did not initially know that Nidal Hasan was paralyzed from the waist down,” CNN reports.

“The president was not aware that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was announcing last week that the administration planned to let the public watch the execution, the sources said, and was not sure what to make of it at first.”

Crime and Punishment, National Security, White House

Starlink Limits Disrupt Ukrainian Air Defenses

October 14, 2026 · 10:54 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Ukraine is raising alarm that air defense operations are being impacted by unannounced limitations on SpaceX satellites,” The Hill reports.

“The disruption comes following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warning that President Trump has threatened to cut off intelligence sharing with the country.”

New York Post: Ukraine slams SpaceX for cutting Starlink internet access while Russians launch brutal attacks.

Foreign Affairs, National Security

Iran ‘Counting the Moments’ to Sink U.S. Warships

October 14, 2026 · 9:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Ali Ozmaei said Wednesday that Tehran is ‘counting the moments’ until it can sink American warships,” CNBC reports.

Said Ozmaei: “If the Americans think the Strait of Hormuz is open, let them come closer. We are impatient to sink American warships.”

He added: “We are waiting for U.S. warships to approach the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz so we can sink them. We are counting down every moment until this happens.”

Foreign Affairs, National Security

Backlash Grows to Hegseth’s Livestream Execution Plan

October 13, 2026 · 12:34 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The plan to livestream the firing squad execution of the convicted Fort Hood shooter is garnering mounting discomfort from the Catholic Church, the Hill and survivors of the shooting,” Axios reports.

“President Trump even has apparent qualms over holding the first public execution in the U.S. in some nine decades after receiving a deluge of bipartisan concern.”

New York Post: Mike Johnson urges Trump to rethink livestreaming Nidal Hasan execution: “I wouldn’t be watching.”

Crime and Punishment, National Security

Officer in Solitary After Calling for Trump’s Impeachment

October 12, 2026 · 5:53 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“A U.S. Air Force member jailed since August for publicly calling for President Donald Trump’s impeachment is being held in solitary confinement 24 hours a day,” Military.com reports.

National Security

Catholic Soldiers Told to Refuse Firing Squad Duty

October 12, 2026 · 5:23 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Archbishop Timothy Broglio, who oversees the Catholic Church’s pastoral services to Catholics in the U.S. military, is condemning the proposed livestream of the firing squad execution of Nidal Hasan,” Politico reports.

“Broglio, in a statement Monday, also stipulated that any Catholic soldier assigned to the U.S. Army firing squad should ask to be excused from that duty, which he described as contrary to the teachings of the church.”

National Security, Religion

The Case of a CIA Officer Who Duped His Fellow Spies

October 12, 2026 · 1:48 pm ET · Leave a Comment

NBC News: “Marble floors. Oceanfront views. Cathedral ceilings. The estates were in Palm Beach’s most prestigious neighborhoods, and they were worth tens of millions of dollars.”

“Senior CIA officer David Rush bought the luxury residences with government money, telling his associates that it was all for an ultrasecret intelligence project. The price tag for the four properties came to $145 million. And as it turns out, there was no secret project.”

Corruption, National Security

NATO’s Commander Warns Moscow Against Attacks

October 12, 2026 · 10:10 am ET · Leave a Comment

“NATO’s supreme commander has acknowledged that Russia’s hybrid war against Europe is unsettling the continent’s societies but warned Moscow that the military alliance is always ready to strike back at any attack,” the Financial Times reports.

Foreign Affairs, National Security

U.S. Threatens to Block Arms for Ukraine

October 11, 2026 · 6:44 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration is threatening to stop the procurement system that provides Ukraine with weapons in order to press Kyiv to halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, according to officials in Europe,” the Financial Times reports.

“The officials, who received calls from American officials on Saturday and Sunday or were briefed on them, said the U.S. was lobbying European capitals and Kyiv in an attempt to end the attacks on Russian oil refineries.”

Foreign Affairs, National Security, White House

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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