“The Republican consultants had to be hush-hush — ‘almost paranoid’ in the words of one — because of their high-stakes mission: Get go-betweens to help circumvent a Florida Constitutional ban on gerrymandering,” the Miami Herald reports.

“The plot was spelled out in a newly released batch of once-secret emails that show how the consultants surreptitiously drew congressional and state legislative maps. They then recruited seemingly independent citizens to submit them in an effort to strengthen the hand of Florida Republicans when the GOP-led Legislature redrew lawmaker districts in 2011.”

The Supreme Court said it will “consider a challenge by Arizona Republicans to the state’s congressional districting map,” the AP reports.

“Arizona voters created an independent redistricting commission in 2000 in an effort to take politics out of the process. But the GOP-led state legislature complained in a lawsuit that the Constitution exclusively gives power to draw maps for congressional districts to elected state lawmakers. A divided panel of federal judges dismissed the lawsuit, but justices said they will review the lower court ruling.”

“Florida’s flawed congressional districts may remain in place for two more years and newly drawn boundaries for seven north and central districts don’t have to take effect until 2016,” the Tampa Bay Times reports.

“Judge Terry Lewis upheld the revisions to the state’s congressional map approved by the Florida Legislature during a three-day special session earlier this month. But he said the current configuration, which he ruled unconstitutional a month ago, could stand for the 2014 election.”

Morning Line: “Nationwide, Democrats are underrepresented by about 19 seats, according to the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman, who has devoted more time and energy to redistricting than almost anyone in the country over the last few years… In 2012, despite Republicans retaining control of the House, Democrats actually won 1.4 million more votes in House races, or 50.6 percent.”

“Why does that matter? Because if the congressional districts were divided based on that, Nancy Pelosi would still be speaker. Democrats would have about 220 seats, two more than needed to pass legislation on things like immigration, infrastructure, etc. But that’s not the way it works. Republicans over the last decade devoted a lot of time and energy to state legislative races and won back more governor’s seats than Democrats. That’s part of the game.”

Florida lawmakers “returned to work Thursday under court-order to redraw their gerrymandered ‘mockery’ of a congressional map in order to avert a chaotic delay in this fall’s elections,” the Orlando Sentinel reports.

“And without delay, they released a plan that tweaks the contours of seven U.S. House districts spread throughout Central Florida.”

“Florida legislative leaders said on Sunday they plan to call a special session on Thursday after a judge ordered them to redraw the state’s U.S. congressional maps and held open the possibility of delaying general elections in November,” Reuters reports.

Charlie Cook: “While this year’s midterms won’t change the course set in 2010, what happens in the 2018 and 2020 gubernatorial and state legislative elections will be huge in establishing who controls redistricting in 2021, and which governors can veto or influence where the lines are drawn. For Democrats, those elections will determine whether they are going to be shut out of controlling the House for a second straight decade, or whether there will be a fairer fight for dominance of the lower chamber.”

“Obviously, the political environment will also be shaped by whoever wins the presidency in 2016; how the next president performs in the 2018 midterm election, and her or his prospects for reelection in 2020, will likely determine whether the terrain will be tilted toward one party or be relatively level. But after they saw how much of a difference 2010 made, it’s pretty safe to assume that neither side will be caught asleep in these cycles.”

“Florida legislative leaders have ended their silence on the rejected congressional map and announced Tuesday they will not appeal the circuit court ruling but agree to redraw the map deemed unconstitutional because of two invalid districts,” the Tampa Bay Times reports.

Stephen Wolf: “Late last week, Leon County Circuit Court Judge Terry Lewis ruled that the congressional redistricting plan the Florida legislature enacted in 2012 was unconstitutionally violated the state’s new Fair Districts amendments… Lewis found that lawmakers drew the map with the intent of impermissibly advancing the interests of the Republican Party, improperly protecting certain incumbents and yielding districts that were not geometrically compact enough. However, due to the appeals a process, a revised map likely won’t be in place until the 2016 elections.”

“While many Democratic observers lauded the decision, it remains to be seen how big a victory plaintiffs won won. Though Lewis specifically ruled the 5th and 10th Districts were unconstitutional, only tiny segments were deemed outright violations of the Fair Districts amendments, and remedies for those segments could very well have a negligible partisan impact.”

“Democrats have long claimed that Republicans abused their legislative powers to elect a disproportionate number of U.S. House members. Now a Florida court is lending credence to their complaint,” the AP reports.

“The full impact of the Florida ruling — plus a similar lawsuit pending in North Carolina — won’t be known for some while. For now, at least, they shine light on the fiercely partisan practice of gerrymandering, in which state officials draw congressional districts to help their party.”

“Republicans and Democrats have engaged in gerrymandering for decades. Republicans refined the practice in 2011, a year after they won control of numerous state governments preparing to redraw congressional maps based on the 2010 census. It’s one reason Republicans hold a solid House majority even though Americans cast 1.4 million more votes for Democratic House candidates than for GOP House candidates in 2012.”

The Hill notes it’s not clear how the impact of a judge’s ruling invalidating Florida’s congressional districts will impact this year’s elections.

“The decision is certain to be appealed, and even many Democrats, who cheered the ruling, are doubtful that any redrawing could be implemented quickly enough for the 2014 elections. The state’s filing period has already closed ahead of the August 26 primary elections. The judge has yet to order actions going forward to correct the map.”

Jonathan Katz, a professor at the California Institute of Technology, testified in court that Florida’s congressional map “was heavily biased toward electing Republicans despite the state’s Democratic-edge in voters,” the Orlando Sentinel reports.

“His analysis suggested that the pro-GOP bias using 2010 voter-turnout data was 15.9 percent. Intuitively, that means Republicans could expect to capture 58 percent of the congressional seats to Democrats’ 42 percent of the seats, even if voter turnout was perfectly balanced at 50 percent GOP and 50 percent Democrat.”

“Katz concluded they were the most biased he had ever examined — easily twice as pro-Republican-leaning as Texas maps drawn by the chair of that state’s Republican Party.”

Wonk Wire: Which state has the most gerrymandered districts?

“A group of wealthy liberal donors who helped bankroll the Center for American Progress and other major advocacy groups on the left is developing a new big-money strategy that could boost state-level Democratic candidates and mobilize core party voters,” the Washington Post reports.

“The plan… seeks to give Democrats a stronger hand in the redrawing of district lines for state legislatures and the U.S. House. The effort reflects a sense among many top donors on the left that Democrats missed opportunities in 2010 to shape the redistricting process and contain the tea party wave that helped propel Republican victories around the country.”

The Daily Show interviews redistricting guru Kimball Brace on “the art of gerrymander.”

[Read more…]

Doug Sosnik: “The ballot box has traditionally been the place where Americans’ voices their discontent. But the political system has built-in safeguards through reapportionment and redistricting that will limit the vulnerability of most incumbent elected officials. These lines will not be redrawn until the beginning of the next decade, forestalling the massive desire for change that is building in our country.”

“This all suggests that the period of turmoil and dissatisfaction that we have been experiencing for the past 10 years could well continue through the end of this decade. However, underneath this turmoil you can see the shape of an emerging populist movement that will, in time, either move the politicians to action or throw them out of office. The country is moving toward new types of leaders, those who will be problem-solvers and build institutions that are capable of making a difference in people’s lives.”