Stuart Rothenberg: “While the 2020 census is still three years away, the fight for control of the congressional redistricting process is underway — in developing gubernatorial contests in a handful of key states.”

“Although the 2018 and 2020 electoral results could change things dramatically, it now appears that three states will be at the front lines in the partisan congressional redistricting battle: Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Each will elect a governor next year who, because of the veto, will have a role in redistricting.”

“Republicans controlled redistricting in all three states after the last census, and they were very aggressive in drawing maps that maximized their advantage.”

New York Times: “Thwarted for much of his term by a confrontational Republican Congress, and criticized by his fellow Democrats for not devoting sufficient attention to their down-ballot candidates, Mr. Obama has decided to make the byzantine process of legislative redistricting a central political priority in his first years after the presidency.”

“Emerging as Mr. Obama’s chief collaborator and proxy is Eric H. Holder Jr., the former attorney general of the United States and a personal friend of the president. He has signed on to lead the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, a newly formed political group aimed at untangling the creatively drawn districts that have helped cement the Republican Party in power in Washington and many state capitals.”

“As Democrats aim to capitalize on this year’s Republican turmoil and start building back their own decimated bench, former Attorney General Eric Holder will chair a new umbrella group focused on redistricting reform—with the aim of taking on the gerrymandering that’s left the party behind in statehouses and made winning a House majority far more difficult,” Politico reports.

“The new group, called the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, was developed in close consultation with the White House. President Barack Obama himself has now identified the group—which will coordinate campaign strategy, direct fundraising, organize ballot initiatives and put together legal challenges to state redistricting maps—as the main focus of his political activity once he leaves office.”

A new U.S. Census release of state-by-state population changes sparked instant predictions about which states will gain and lose House seats after the 2020 census, the Wall Street Journal reports.

“If those trends hold up, 15 states would gain or lose districts after the 2020 census. The biggest gains would come to Texas, which is projected to clinch three more House seats, and Florida, a gainer of two seats. Arizona, North Carolina, Colorado and are all poised to grab one seat after 2020.”

“Nine states are projected to lose districts: Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia.”

“In an acknowledgement of the steep climb they face to regain control of the House of Representatives, three top Democratic campaign committees will meet this week to plot strategy for redrawing the congressional map, roughly five years before it will be altered,” the Huffington Post reports.

“With the underlying goal of producing a sophisticated and coordinated redistricting effort to match Republicans, Thursday’s strategy session is seen as the first of many steps in recalibrating the balance of power in the states and on Capitol Hill.”

“If Picasso were alive today, he could get a lot of artistic fulfillment just by drawing congressional districts.”

— Former Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), quoted by Roll Call.

The Supreme Court “surprised election-law experts and said it would hear arguments this fall about whether voting districts should continue to be drawn by using census population data, which include noncitizen immigrants who are in the United States both legally and illegally, or whether the system should be changed to count only citizens who are eligible to vote, as conservative challengers are seeking,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“In California and other states with large noncitizen populations, a switch in who gets counted could have a huge effect.”

FiveThirtyEight: “A move toward counting only eligible voters, as logistically difficult as it may be, would drastically shift political power away from the urban environs with minorities and noncitizens, and toward whiter areas with larger native-born populations. That’s bad news for Democrats: Of the 50 congressional districts with the lowest shares of eligible voters, 41 are occupied by Democrats (nearly all are Latino-majority seats). Meanwhile, of the 50 districts with the highest shares of eligible voters, 38 are represented by the GOP.”

The Supreme Court “sided with black challengers who said Alabama’s redistricting plan improperly relied on race to draw legislative districts,” the Washington Post reports.

“The challenge was brought by black officeholders and Democrats who argued that the state’s Republican leadership packed minority voters into districts that allowed the election of African American officials but reduced their influence elsewhere.”

“Democrats launched a super PAC Thursday with the purpose of flipping state legislatures before the next round of redistricting, which will follow the 2020 elections,” the Huffington Post reports.

“The PAC, called Advantage 2020, will be led by Mark Schauer, a former Democratic congressman and Michigan state Senate leader who lost the state’s gubernatorial race to Republican Gov. Rick Snyder last year. Advantage 2020 plans to spend about $70 million over the next three elections in an attempt to chip away at GOP majorities in key battleground states where Republicans established legislative districts after the 2010 elections.”