“As politicians become increasingly comfortable with social media, they’ve also begun dabbling in its darker impulses, employing tweets and Facebook posts as bait in a partisan war of words. Yes, trolling—the act of gleefully using the Internet to intentionally provoke or anger someone—is fast becoming a substitute for political discourse in America,” Bloomberg reports.

“On the bright side, trolling can show off a politician’s sense of humor, or at least the humor of an aide authorized to use the politician’s sign-on.. The winking sarcasm of tweets or gifs does offer momentary relief from politics’ often dreary, C-SPAN-esque excitement. But it’s also hard to deny that when elected officials stoop to snide point-scoring, something feels amiss. It’s as if they are admitting that cynicism has won the day.”

A new Pew Research survey finds that just 38% of Americans say they hope the U.S. will elect a female president in their lifetime while 57% say it doesn’t matter to them.

Michael Kinsley: “Is it too much to expect a politician running for president to have what the voters perhaps don’t? Call it a theory of government, or a framework for analyzing issues. Ron Paul, the curmudgeonly godfather of libertarianism and the actual father of Kentucky senator Rand Paul, says in the foreword to one of his son’s books: “The sole purpose of government is to protect our liberties.” Paul’s framework is pretty clear, and it rules out most of what the government does. He would privatize the Washington Monument if he could… Many people like to call themselves libertarians, but few would go as far as Ron Paul.”

“But at least you know where Ron Paul stands. Is there a similarly pithy summary of Hillary Clinton’s philosophy? Not where she stands on Issue A or Issue B but a philosophical framework that would predict where she might come out on some as yet unknown Issue C, which will inevitably blindside us during her presidency? Except for a vague notion that she is soothingly left of center, I have no idea where she would stand. What about the other people running or mentioned for president in either party? For that matter, what about the voters? What about you?”

A new Pew Research analysis finds that financial security is strongly correlated with nearly every measure of political engagement.

“For example, in 2014, almost all of the most financially secure Americans (94%) said they were registered to vote, while only about half (54%) of the least financially secure were registered. And although 2014 voting records are not yet available, pre-election estimates suggest that 63% of the most financially secure were ‘likely voters’ last year, compared with just 20% of the least financially secure.”

Gallup: “Conservatives continued to outnumber moderates and liberals in the U.S. population in 2014, as they have since 2009. However, their 14-percentage-point edge over liberals last year, 38% vs. 24%, is the smallest in Gallup’s trends since 1992.”

“This year and next are likely to represent something of a watershed period in American politics,” Charlie Cook writes.

“First, we have a ‘double open’ presidential contest, with no incumbent running in either party. The absence of an incumbent creates a vacuum and an opportunity for change within a party—not only a strong chance of generational change but also a shift in direction, tone, and approach.”

“Second, with Republicans taking over both chambers of Congress and with a lame-duck Democratic president in place, both parties will be seeking to find their new paths and strategies.”

Wonk Wire: The new Congress: Racially diverse but religiously uniform

A new Pew Research survey finds that “perceptions of the current level of political division continue at record levels: 81% say the country is more politically divided these days than in the past. While that is little changed from two years ago, it is as high a percentage expressing this view as at any point over the past decade.”

“Looking ahead, few Americans expect the nation’s political differences to diminish. Just 17% think the country will be less politically divided five years from now.”

A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds just 13% of Americans are confident the leaders can work together, while 86% have no such faith. That’s far more than the 58% who felt that way just after the 2010 midterm elections in which the tea party movement rose to prominence.

“The doubts cross party lines: Fewer than 1 in 5 Democrats or independents have confidence the two sides can cooperate. Republicans are even more pessimistic, with just 1 in 10 confident Obama and Congress can work together.”

A new YouGov poll finds that 30% of Americans say they “have serious political disagreements with someone in their family, but only about a third of those say a political disagreement has hurt their relationship with a close family member.”

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that 56% of Americans think the country’s economic and political systems are stacked against them.

“Most striking is how widely shared this sense of alienation now is. Among those saying the system is stacked against them are 58% of Democrats; 51% of Republicans; 55% of whites; 60% of blacks; 53% of Hispanics; as well as decent majorities of every age and professional cluster, including blue-collar workers, white-collar workers and retirees.”

[speech_bubble type=”std” subtype=”a” icon=”pwdome.jpg” name=””]This alienation has been building steadily since 2002. It’s not a coincidence we swing from one wave election to the next.[/speech_bubble]

“This is an era of titanic challenges and tiny politics. On issue after issue, the Republican and Democratic parties preen and pose but ultimately duck their responsibilities to solve the transcendent problems of our times,” Ron Fournier writes.

First Read: “Compared with all the big problems at home and abroad, our politics right now seems so small… And the biggest takeaway here is that Washington can no longer handle the large issues — unless it has a gun held to head (the expiring Bush tax cuts, the need to raise the debt limit). So much of this is a function of divided government; elections have consequences, right?”

“But as we’ve noted before, what separates our current era of politics from past ones is the unwillingness to give the opposition any kind of ‘win.’ Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neill didn’t agree on much and fought over plenty, but they compromised enough on the low-hanging fruit for Americans to have faith in the political system. Ditto George W. Bush and Ted Kennedy when it came to education reform. Yet what’s different today is that there’s no compromise on the low-hanging fruit. And everything now turns into a huge political battle, even on subjects that weren’t controversial decades ago — like when Reagan and Bush 41 used executive action to protect certain undocumented immigrants from deportation.”

Lynn Vavreck: “In presidential elections, if the economy grows during the election year, the incumbent president (or the incumbent’s party) is more likely to be re-elected. The correlation is so impressive that political scientists often refer to national economic conditions as part of the structural or fundamental conditions that drive election outcomes.”

“But while the nation’s economy is a strong shaper of presidential election outcomes, the president himself is the shaper of congressional outcomes.”

The Hill looked “at voting trends and history in all 50 states to find the most secure Republican and Democratic strongholds, and which states appear up for grabs. Factoring into the analysis are votes for president in recent elections, the breakdown of congressional delegations, the parties of the past three governors and control of the state legislatures.”

Bottom line: Alabama is the most Republican, Washington is the most Democratic.

John Avlon: “What’s changed? Well, the two parties in Congress are more ideologically and geographically polarized than at any time in our recent history. But we’ve had deep divisions in our politics before. And yes, the Wingnuts seem to have an outsize influence on our politics debates. But we’ve had extremists in our politics before.”

“What’s different is the proliferation of partisan media via cable news and the Internet. Amid unprecedented access to information, our fellow citizens are self-segregating themselves into separate political realities. That’s the conclusion of a compelling, if depressing, new study by the Pew Research Center on political polarization and media habits.”