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The Progressive Moment in Global Politics Is Over

December 28, 2024 at 8:38 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “This past year showed that the progressive politics that dominated most industrialized countries over the past two decades or more is shifting to the right, fueled by working-class anxieties over the economy and immigration, and growing fatigue with issues from climate change to identity politics.”

“The return of Donald Trump to the White House is the most dramatic and important example—but it is far from the only one.”

“Across Europe, where economic growth has largely stalled, conservatives and populist right-wing parties are making unprecedented gains. Three-quarters of governments in the European Union are either led by a right-of-center party or are ruled by a coalition that includes at least one.”

Filed Under: Trends

Americans End Year Feeling Pessimistic About the U.S.

December 26, 2024 at 5:54 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Gallup poll finds 19% of Americans say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., slightly lower than the 22% to 26% readings in recent months and the lowest since July.

Filed Under: Trends

American Politics Has an Age Problem

December 26, 2024 at 8:32 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Charlie Sykes: “America’s politicians have an age problem, and the issue seems especially acute among congressional Democrats. The prevalence of older politicians can arguably make the elected class less relevant to younger voters and make it more difficult for new voices to rise in politics. But at its core, this is an issue of honesty: Didn’t the American people have a right to know that Biden was struggling? Didn’t Texans deserve to know about Granger? And if either of them was being lied to by those supporting them, didn’t they themselves deserve the truth too?”

“Eventually, Biden did bow out—and one consequence is that the next president of the United States will, like Biden, be 82 years old at the end of his term.”

Filed Under: Trends

The Expert Class Is Failing

December 2, 2024 at 11:57 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Silver: “As Sean Trende pointed out on X, it hasn’t exactly been the best century for the expert class. Begin with the response to September 11 — the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars, which were supported by bipartisan majorities. Then the financial crisis and the bank bailouts. Then Brexit and the election of Trump. Then the pandemic: what was supposed to be a triumph of management for a technocratic elite instead wound up as a worst-of-all-worlds scenario with prolonged restrictions and school closures and 7 million dead — from a virus possibly caused by sloppy scientific research practices. Then massive inflation, which was supposed to be a thing of the past. Throw in here, if you like, ‘wokeness’ and how it’s eroded trust in higher education and triggered a cultural backlash.”

Filed Under: Trends

Movers Reveal American Polarization in Action

October 31, 2024 at 5:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Our analysis suggests partisanship itself, intentional or not, plays a powerful role when Americans uproot and find a new home. And their very personal decisions about where to resettle help power the churn of migration that is continuously reshaping American life at the neighborhood level and contributing to a sense that Americans are siloed in echo chambers, online and in their daily lives.”

“It also has real stakes for our elections: Political scientists say the more partisan a district or state becomes, the less a candidate needs to woo voters from the other party — or, after winning, govern on their behalf.”

Filed Under: Trends

Red States Get Redder, Blue States Get Bluer

October 8, 2024 at 10:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A USA Today analysis of the nation’s 3,113 counties shows “a striking realignment since 2012 that has intensified the partisan leanings in states across the country, leaving only a handful where the outcome of the Nov. 5 presidential election remains in doubt.”

“The hardening of the country’s political lines has contributed to other consequences, too, including one-party control of the governorship and state legislature in 40 of the 50 states. That has led to a patchwork of sharply divergent laws across the country − even between neighboring states − on abortion rights, transgender care, the public-health response to the pandemic and other controversial issues.”

Filed Under: Trends

America’s Youngest Voters Turn Right

September 28, 2024 at 8:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A new trend has emerged in American politics: The very youngest voters — 18-to-24-year-olds — say they’re more conservative than the cohort that’s just older,” according to the latest Harvard Youth Poll.

“This new trend — which is true for both genders and emerged only in the last few years — is especially pronounced with men.”

Filed Under: Trends

2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP

September 24, 2024 at 5:26 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Gallup: “Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.”

“Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Trends

How the Last 8 Years Made Young Women More Liberal

September 15, 2024 at 9:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Then, around 2016, something shifted, a new analysis shows. Women ages 18 to 29 became significantly more liberal than the previous generation of young women. Today, around 40 percent identify as liberal, compared with just 19 percent who say they’re conservative. The views of young men — who are more likely to be conservative than liberal — have changed little.”

“It’s unusual for shifts in political ideology to be so pronounced, political scientists say. Young women are much more liberal than women 30 and up, according to the analysis by the pollster Gallup, which analyzed the answers to 54 questions about political beliefs that it has asked over time.”

Filed Under: Trends

Young Women Are Becoming More Liberal

September 12, 2024 at 8:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Gallup: “Young women’s stances on several other issues — including the death penalty, healthcare policy, labor unions, taxes, government regulation and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — have become moderately more liberal, while their views on defense spending and a few others show little change.”

“Young men have also moved closer to the liberal positions on most issues, just not as markedly as young women have.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Trends

Americans Want Companies to Stay Out of Politics

August 13, 2024 at 6:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Fewer Americans want companies to take a public stand on current events and public policy,” new results from a Gallup-Bentley University study reveal.

“By taking a stance on political candidates, companies risk taking a hit to their bottom lines.”

“Just 38% think businesses in general should take a public stance on current events, according to the survey of 5,835 U.S. adults fielded from late April to early May.”

Filed Under: Trends

Happy Warriors

August 7, 2024 at 10:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Now trending on the political dictionary: “happy warrior.”

Filed Under: Trends

Divorced Men for Trump

July 12, 2024 at 11:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Daniel Cox: “Since at least the 1990s, married Americans—both men and women—have voted more consistently for Republican candidates than single Americans have. In 2024, we found that 48 percent of married voters were supporting Trump compared to 34 percent who had never been married, a 14-point gap.”

“There is another gap that caught my attention recently.”

“Fifty-six percent of men who are divorced said they are voting for Trump, compared to 42 percent of divorced women. The voting divide between men and women is larger among the formerly married than any other group. Married men and women report supporting Trump at remarkably similar rates (50 percent vs. 45 percent). Single men are somewhat more likely to vote for Trump than single women…”

“The divorce divide in American politics is something new.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Trends

Views of American Greatness

July 4, 2024 at 11:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Philip Bump: “Democrats are more proud of the U.S. Republicans are more likely to view it as the greatest country on Earth.”

Filed Under: Trends

American Pride Remains Near Record Low

July 3, 2024 at 4:34 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Gallup poll finds just 41% of Americans say they are “extremely proud” to be American, the fifth consecutive year this reading has been in the 38% to 43% range.

Filed Under: Trends

Majority Thinks U.S. Is Becoming Less Patriotic

July 2, 2024 at 11:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Marist poll finds 52% of Americans think people in the United States are less patriotic than they were a few years ago, 32% believe they are about as patriotic as they were while 14% believe those in the U.S. are more patriotic.

Filed Under: Trends

‘Too Many Old People’

June 24, 2024 at 10:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “There is a deepening sense of fear as population loss accelerates in rural America. The decline of small-town life is expected to be a looming topic in the presidential election.”

Filed Under: Trends

Young Voters Despair Over Politics

May 29, 2024 at 7:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Young voters overwhelmingly believe that almost all politicians are corrupt and that the country will end up worse off than when they were born,” according to new polling from Democratic firm Blueprint obtained by Semafor.

“The sour mood points to potential trouble for Joe Biden, who is struggling with Gen Z and younger Millennials in polls compared with 2020, and needs to convince them he can be relied on to improve their lives.”

Key findings: “49% agreed to some extent that elections in the country don’t represent people like them; 51% agreed to some extent that the political system in the US ‘doesn’t work for people like me;’ and 64% backed the statement that ‘America is in decline.’”

“A whopping 65% agreed either strongly or somewhat that ‘nearly all politicians are corrupt, and make money from their political power’ — only 7% disagreed.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Trends

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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