We Don’t Know Who Likely Voters Are Yet

First Read criticizes news organizations and pollsters that use likely voter models “to describe an election environment before Memorial Day when many Americans haven’t even begun to tune in to the general election.”

“A tip: There is no such thing as a likely voter six months before a general election, and if you think there is one, you’re likely cooking the books. Our rule is to always begin introducing likely voter models after Labor Day.”