September, 2014

A new Civitas poll in North Carolina finds Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leading challenger Thom Tillis (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 41%, when leaners are allocated to each candidate.

“My mistake was that I was speaking in a way that reflected back to the man. If I had been able to see the camera, I would have remembered that I was talking to the whole world, not just the man.”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by the New York Times, recognizing the potential of hidden cameras to wreck a presidential campaign.

Former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) “is reportedly considering running for president in 2016, though a former aide says talk of a campaign is premature,” the AP reports.

The New York Post says Pataki “is privately gearing up for a 2016 presidential run, according to sources, and was spotted meeting GOP kingmaker David Koch last week.”

New York gubernatorial candidate Rob Astorino (R) has one of the strangest and most desperate ads of the year.

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A new American Research Group poll in New Hampshire finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) leads challenger Scott Brown (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 43%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) slightly ahead of Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 42%.

Key finding: “Even though the horse race numbers haven’t changed much, this is the first time we’ve found Ernst with a better net favorability rating than Braley.”

A new Gravis Marketing survey in Wisconsin finds Mary Burke (D) leading Gov. Scott Walker (R) in the race for governor by five points, 50% to 45%.

Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) asked former Sen. Nancy Kassebaum Baker (R-KS), his “colleague and friend of more than 30 years,” to tape a TV commercial for him but she refused, the Kansas City Star reports.

Said Kassebaum Baker: “There’s just disappointment around the state. They feel they don’t know him now.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Bill Cassidy (R) with a slight lead over Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) in a possible December runoff election, 48% to 45%.

Key finding: “Neither candidate is very popular with voters. 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of Cassidy to 41% with an unfavorable opinion, numbers that while poor are actually slightly improved from a -8 net favorability rating on the previous poll at 28/36. Landrieu’s approval numbers are worse though- 42% give her good marks to 52% who disapprove.”

NPR reports that Michigan U.S. Senate candidate Terri Lynn Land’s (R) “last public appearance was at a Republican dinner in Macomb County last Tuesday. Since then, nothing.”

“As many as a dozen incumbent governors are fighting for their political lives five weeks out from Election Day — a list that includes the chief executives of states as red as Kansas and as blue as Connecticut as well as several top presidential battlegrounds,” Politico reports.

“The unsettled gubernatorial landscape has drawn a fraction of the attention of the seesawing battle for the Senate. Yet the state of play is dramatic in its own right: The fate of big-name Republicans such as Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, Florida’s Rick Scott and Michigan’s Rick Snyder are all on the line, and Democrats such as Colorado’s John Hickenlooper and Illinois’ Pat Quinn are locked in tough reelection races that could go either way.”

Reid Wilson: “Here’s the rough consensus on Democratic seats (the higher the rank, the more likely a seat is to change control): Montana will flip by the widest margin. West Virginia. South Dakota. Louisiana. Arkansas. Alaska. Iowa. Colorado. Michigan. North Carolina. Minnesota. Oregon (Some Democrats say North Carolina should come before Iowa and Colorado). The consensus among Republican seats: Kansas is the most likely to change control. Then Georgia. Then Kentucky.”

“The shorthand takeaway: Alaska is the Republicans’ 51st seat. If Kansas flips, it’s all about Iowa.”

Charlie Cook: “My hunch is that this is not a year when Democrats are likely to get a disproportionate share of the breaks. I’m sticking with the 60 percent chance of a Senate turnover that I’ve held for several months.”