A new Nielson Brothers survey in South Dakota finds Mike Rounds (R) leading Rick Weiland (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 39% to 26%, with Larry Pressler (I) at 24%.
If Weiland were not in the race, Rounds would be in a dead heat with Pressler, 40% to 39%.
Businessweek: “A political candidate’s firing in Florida offers a reminder of a little-understood fact of American life: Companies have sweeping discretion to effectively regulate what their workers do outside of work, including running for elected office.”
“You women don’t understand — guns are for men what jewelry is for women.”
— Rep. Steve King (R-IA), quoted by TPM.
“With a wounded candidate at the top of their ticket, Democrats in Ohio have been forced to adopt a Plan B as they seek to avoid a disastrous shutout in elections for governor and other statewide offices,” the New York Times reports.
“Democrats here and nationally had high hopes of ousting Gov. John Kasich, whose job approval was below 50 percent among voters in Quinnipiac University polls taken early this year. But that was before the challenger, Ed FitzGerald, suffered self-inflicted wounds and his campaign all but imploded. With donors fleeing, top aides to Mr. FitzGerald quit last month as it became clear there was not enough money for a hard-fought race.”
National Journal: “Democratic candidates for Congress are crushing their Republican counterparts in small-dollar donations — outraising their GOP foes by an average of more than $100,000 per candidate in the nation’s top races. That’s the finding of a new National Journal analysis of federal records in the most competitive House contests in the country. In those, the average Democrat has collected $179,300 in donations under $200; the average Republican has brought in only $78,535.”
“It would be an uphill fight, almost like climbing a wall. He would be running against someone who simultaneously has two television shows based on her. She is a political figure with such remarkable strength ahead of the campaign, unlike anything I’ve seen in my lifetime.”
— Former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE), quoted by the Washington Post, on the possibility of former Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) challenging Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Annabelle Monaghan: “People seem to really like to talk about the good old days. Remember when kids played outside and could shake your hand because they weren’t playing Angry Birds? I remember those days too, but here’s what I also remember about growing up in the 70’s…”
Nate Silver looks at the implications of a new poll showing Joni Ernst (R) with a solid lead over Bruce Braley (D) in the Iowa U.S. Senate race.
“If Republicans are favored there also, they have a path to a Senate majority without having to worry about the crazy race in Kansas. Nor is Iowa their only option. Polls have also moved toward Republicans in Colorado, where their candidate Cory Gardner is now a slight favorite.”
“This is an awfully flexible set of outcomes for Republicans. Win the six ‘path of least resistance’ states that I mentioned before, avoid surprises in races like Kentucky, and all Republicans need to do is win either Iowa or Colorado to guarantee a Senate majority. Or they could have Roberts hold on in Kansas. Or Orman could win that race, but the GOP could persuade him to caucus with them.”
“I’ve seen him grow and I’ve seen him mature and I’ve seen him become more centrist. I know that if he were President or a nominee I could influence him, particularly some of his views and positions on national security. He trusts me particularly on the military side of things, so I could easily work with him. It wouldn’t be a problem.”
— Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), quoted by the New Yorker, saying he would support Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) if he were the Republican nominee for president.
New York Times: “Twenty-two years after he won the White House and six years after his wife’s near miss for the Democratic nomination, former President Bill Clinton again stands in the thick of the competition for the nation’s highest office.”
“That makes Mr. Clinton, who addressed his first national convention at age 33 and on Friday became a grandfather at 68, the most durable high-stakes player ever in American presidential politics.”
Bruce Braley (D) and Joni Ernst (R) “squared off in a lively U.S. Senate debate Sunday evening, marked by heated exchanges on abortion, contraceptives, climate change and environmental regulations — and by biting attacks and comebacks, especially in the final few minutes,” the Des Moines Register reports.
“Braley went on the attack against a rival who is ahead by 6 points in the new Iowa Poll on the race, but front-runner Ernst responded in kind in their first face-to-face match-up.”
Braley “needed to land some blows against his Republican competitor” but “he didn’t deliver,” Bloomberg reports.
Kansas U.S. Senate candidate Greg Orman (I) refuses to say whether he would he caucus with Democrats or Republicans if he defeats Sen. Pat Roberts (R), the Washington Post reports.
Said Orman: “It’s not in the best interests for us to say that.”
New York Times: “Congressional Republicans successfully ended their primary season with minimal damage, but in at least a dozen safe or largely safe Republican House districts where more mild-mannered Republicans are exiting, their likely replacements will pull the party to the right, a move likely to increase division in an already polarized Congress.”
Ryan Lizza: “In some respects, Paul is to Republicans in 2014 what Barack Obama was to Democrats in 2006: the Party’s most prized fund-raiser and its most discussed senator, willing to express opinions unpopular within his party, and capable of energizing younger voters. The Republican National Committee, which in 2008 refused to allow his father, Ron Paul, to speak at its Convention, recently solicited donations by offering supporters a chance to have lunch with Rand Paul. The only potential obstacle to a Paul Presidential candidacy in 2016 is his wife, Kelley.”
Said adviser Douglas Stafford: “Unless Kelley says no, he’s running.”
The Hill: “Five weeks before the midterm elections, party leaders are peering into their campaign bank accounts, doing their math and trying to figure out where to put their money — and where to abandon hope.”
“While it is unclear which party will be running the upper chamber in 2015, the states that will decide the race are now apparent. The decisions by D.C. power brokers are sure to be a disappointment for some candidates who will be left to the wayside.”
A new Portland Press Herald poll in Maine finds Mike Michaud (D) edging Gov. Paul LePage (R) in the race for governor, 41% to 39%, with Eliot Cutler (I) at 14%.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Wonk Wire, Political Job Hunt and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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