Where Are the Polls?

Harry Enten: “Two weeks and two days before Election Day, and we received just two polls over the weekend. The polls, both taken in Colorado by left-leaning groups, had little impact on the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast — Republicans have a 62 percent chance of taking the Senate. Indeed, we were more interested in the small number of polls than what those two surveys said.”

“The FiveThirtyEight model relies mostly on polls, and without polls, the forecast’s accuracy could suffer. So we looked into it. Fortunately, this weekend was an aberration. We’re getting fewer polls than we did in 2010, but we’re not getting way fewer polls.”