Archives for October 2015

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Ryan Rises Amid House Chaos

October 29, 2015 at 7:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) “was poised to be installed as the 62nd speaker of the House on Thursday, taking the gavel that he never sought to wield from John Boehner, who relinquished it under fire,” the New York Times reports.

“But the personal jubilance and high expectations felt by Mr. Boehner, who was elected in a sweeping Republican takeover of the House in 2011, have been replaced with a grim recognition that Mr. Ryan’s ascent stems not from electoral victory but rather the chaos in the ranks of his party’s sizable majority.”

Rubio Was Ready for Bush’s Attack

October 28, 2015 at 11:11 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 75 Comments

Jeb Bush attacked Marco Rubio in tonight’s debate for missing votes in the U.S. Senate but it didn’t go well.

New York Times: “Mr. Rubio, the upstart that the Bush inner circle never believed would enter the race, let alone overtake the man whose political blessing he once sought, had outmaneuvered Mr. Bush on live television, with millions watching.”

The Third GOP Presidential Debate

October 28, 2015 at 10:13 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 247 Comments

The third Republican presidential debate was a total, unruly mess. The CNBC moderators were mostly unprepared, asked terrible questions and lost control of the debate from the opening minutes. It was an embarrassment.

That said, dealing with stupid questions is a job requirement of the president.

The winners of the debate were Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Both senators were ready and used the format to their advantage. Rubio had plenty of opportunities to show off his political skills and regularly turned questions to his advantage. Cruz took issue with the bad questions and turned his fire against the media — always an effective strategy in a GOP debate.

The big loser was Jeb Bush. After a failed attack on Rubio’s missed votes in the U.S. Senate, he looked like a defeated man. He’s surely intelligent but he has an amazing ability to choose the wrong words. He needed a better performance to show he was worthy of his donors and didn’t deliver. To paraphrase Pulp Fiction: “Jeb’s dead, baby. Jeb’s dead.”

Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie also had a good night. Both have sharp political skills but haven’t put them to together in package that rises to the top of the field. They might start angling to be someone’s running mate.

Donald Trump and Ben Carson proved that as these debates go on, neither is comfortable dealing with the details of public policy. Carson’s response to a question about his tax policy was unintelligible, though he did come back with an effective response to a terrible question about his service on corporate boards. In a question on H1B visas, Trump proved he doesn’t even know what’s on his own website. Nonetheless, they’re both still very interesting to watch.

John Kasich tried to shine a light on the policy inconsistencies of his rivals but he’s become the Jon Huntsman of this cycle. It’s not clear the GOP electorate cares much.

Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee are just forgettable and probably shouldn’t be invited to the next debate.

Watch the Third GOP Debate

October 28, 2015 at 7:28 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 127 Comments

The debate is on CNBC at 8 pm ET and can be viewed online only if you’re a cable television subscriber.

Check back later for reaction to the debate.

Follow @politicalwire

Quote of the Day

October 28, 2015 at 5:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 34 Comments

“Without question. It is a total fallacy, that is a Nancy Pelosi fallacy, that you can’t cut one penny or it will be a disaster. That is a total bunch of crap.”

— Ben Carson, quoted by the Washington Examiner, when asked if it was possible to cut spending enough so that the debt limit would never need to rise.

House Passes Two-Year Budget Deal

October 28, 2015 at 5:42 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

The House “passed a two-year budget deal that would extend the government’s borrowing limit less than a week before the Treasury risks being unable to pay its bills,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The legislation now heads to the Senate, which is expected to pass it later this week or weekend, depending on whether its opponents try to drag out the process. GOP presidential candidate Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky has indicated he will block efforts to speed up the deal’s Senate passage.”

Bill Clinton Rallies Superdelegates for Hillary

October 28, 2015 at 5:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments

“Hillary Clinton has extended her already sizable superdelegate lead by several dozen since August, and is deploying former President Bill Clinton to bring more of the powerful endorsers on board.”

“Based on a memo from campaign manager Robby Mook and delegate figures provided by the Democratic National Committee, Bloomberg Politics estimates Hillary Clinton has well over 500 superdelegate commitments, putting her even closer to securing the minimum number needed to win the party’s nomination before ordinary voters cast a single ballot in a caucus or primary.”

Anti-Clinton Groups Take Shape

October 28, 2015 at 3:26 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 31 Comments

“A collection of top GOP operatives, financed by prominent Republican donors, is launching two new groups to take aim at Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The groups—Future45, a super PAC, and 45Committee, an issue-advocacy organization—are designed to seize on issues that emerge in the campaign or comments Mrs. Clinton makes and quickly assemble ads that will run both online and on television. Organizers are hoping the groups will become something of an experimental, quick-strike vehicle to see what messages and tactics work.”

Carson Campaign Struggling to Explain Platform

October 28, 2015 at 3:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 39 Comments

“Ben Carson, whose appeal as a political novice has thrust him to the top of the Republican presidential field, faces a critical test in Wednesday night’s debate — defending a policy platform that he is building so fast that he and his staff have struggled to explain it,” the Washington Post reports.

“Carson, for instance, has indicated that he wants to loosen U.S. gun laws significantly. But his campaign says he doesn’t. Carson also said he wants to tax everyone at 10 percent, a system he said was drawn from the Bible. But Carson’s campaign says it could be 15 percent, or some other amount. Aides say to expect detailed plans in a month.”

GOP Nominates Paul Ryan to be Speaker

October 28, 2015 at 2:54 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 16 Comments

As expected, House Republicans nominated Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) to be the 62nd speaker of the House, turning to the young chairman of the Ways and Means Committee to replace John Boehner, who was driven into retirement by an angry uprising of conservative hard-liners, the New York Times reports.

Washington Post: “According to a tally announced inside the room, Ryan won support from 200 of the 247-member GOP conference. A House floor vote to select the new speaker is set for Thursday morning, bringing an end to a five-week scramble to find Boehner’s replacement.”

New Exit Polls Being Tested

October 28, 2015 at 2:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 4 Comments

“When voters go to the polls in Kentucky and Mississippi on Nov. 3, The Associated Press will be launching experiments aimed at finding more accurate and less expensive ways to survey them. With funding from the Knight Foundation, the AP has hired GfK Custom Research to identify and survey voters online, instead of conducting a traditional exit poll where precinct-based interviewers ask voters to fill out questionnaires,” the AP reports.

From Simple to Complex, Negative to Positive

October 28, 2015 at 1:58 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 13 Comments

The New York Times has an interesting analysis of the presidential candidates’ speaking styles in this year’s presidential debates.

“DonaldTrump stands out as the simplest speaker by far and also one of the more positive. Though he is highly critical of his opponents and often rails against how terrible the world is today, he spends more time talking about how great America will be under a Trump administration. In the opposite corner of the matrix is Bernie Sanders, who prefers both complex language and dire descriptions.”

Betting on the GOP Establishment Isn’t a Good Bet

October 28, 2015 at 12:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 27 Comments

Norm Ornstein: “In every recent national poll of Republicans, including those with likely voters, with or without leaners, the breakdown is that the five main outsider candidates (Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina, Huckabee) combine to generate between 63 and 70 percent support. The three main establishment candidates, Bush, Rubio, and Kasich, combine to between 12 and 19 percent.”

“Of course, there is a chance that as one or more of the outsider candidates falters, their supporters will gravitate to Rubio or one of the other establishment figures. Or that the outsiders will fragment in support, allowing Rubio, the establishment favorite, to do what Mitt Romney did in 2012. But it is a bit more likely that the bulk of those voters will opt instead for another outsider.”

Rubio Handicaps the Field

October 28, 2015 at 12:47 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 53 Comments

Sen. Marco Rubio has a message before tonight’s GOP presidential debate.

Bonus Trump Quote of the Day

October 28, 2015 at 12:39 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

“I mean, I am second — it’s not, like, terrible. But I don’t like being second. Second is terrible to me.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by the Washington Post, on his recent showing in Iowa polls.

Has the Republican Party Really Lost Its Mind?

October 28, 2015 at 11:33 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 84 Comments

Ryan Lizza: “Is it really going to nominate someone like Trump (or Carson), whose views are are so far outside the mainstream that either would pave the way for a historic Democratic landslide?”

“It’s doubtful. The overwhelming majority of Republican voters have repeatedly told pollsters this year that, whatever their choice in any given poll, they haven’t made up their minds yet. Most won’t think hard about their decision for at least another three months. At this point in 2008, Rudy Giuliani was the polling leader. In 2012, it was Cain. Rather than tell us anything deep about voter sentiments, polls at this point generally reflect name recognition and which candidates are receiving the most media attention at any given time.”

The Latest on Wonk Wire

October 28, 2015 at 11:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here’s what’s trending on Wonk Wire today:

Ryan Will Vote for Budget Deal

October 28, 2015 at 11:09 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 19 Comments

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), “expected to become the next speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, threw his support on Wednesday behind a two-year budget deal aimed at averting a default on U.S. government debt next week,” Reuters reports.

“The support could provide a boost for the bill, which is set to reach the House floor for a vote Wednesday, even as far-right Republicans criticize it for increasing spending.”