Political Wire

SubscribeSign in
  • Front Page
  • Trending
  • Polling
  • Trial Balloon
  • Books
  • Membership
    • Members FAQ
    • Exclusive Analysis
    • My Favorites
  • Sign In
Theme
Text size

Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194

What Just Happened?

A new episode of Trial Balloon just dropped for Political Wire members. Log in or become a member

Trial Balloon · Ep. 194: What Just Happened?

TV Ads Haven’t Worked

December 23, 2015 · 9:22 am ET · 22 Comments

First Read notes that “according to the normal rules of politics, millions of dollars in positive TV ads — especially before the airwaves get saturated — are supposed to help your poll numbers. But that hasn’t been the case for Jeb Bush. Per our SMG Delta data, Bush and his allies have spent a whopping $38 million in ads since September, more than the twice as much as the nearest competition. Yet Bush’s numbers have only declined — he’s at just 3% in the new CNN poll, and our December NBC/WSJ poll found 48% of Republican voters saying they COULDN’T see themselves supporting him (versus 32% who said this back in March).”

Limited-time offer

Try Political Wire Free for 60 days

Members get Talking Points analysis, Trending News, the Polling Dashboard, the Trial Balloon podcast, new site features and no ads. Start your free trial

2016 Campaign, Political Advertising

← PreviousFewer Candidates Likely to Make Next DebateNext →Donald Trump Ends Year Unscathed

Keep reading

Front page →

Political Wire is reader-supported. Join for ad-free reading, member posts and new features →

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

More about Taegan Goddard →

?Political Trivia

  • The Way It Was
    Eight moments in political history. Put them on a timeline.
    Play →
  • Yea or Nay?
    Five senators. Three bills. Can you guess how they all voted?
    Play →
  • Split Decision
    Nine Justices. One case. How did they rule?
    Play →
  • Pollster
    Do you have your finger on the pulse of America?
    Play →
  • Daily Trivia
    Four questions a day.
    Play →

A new game every day.

Your Account

Members

For the full experience, sign in.

Become a Member

Read everything on Political Wire. No ads, Talking Points analysis, Trial Balloon podcast, new features and more.

  • Join Political Wire
  • Gift a Membership

Members Only

  • Trump Digs In
  • Republicans Had Nothing
  • Weekly News Quiz
  • A Pause in the Redistricting War?
  • A Remarkable Milestone in American Politics
  • Two Senate Races Remain

More members only posts →

Electoral Map Electoral Vote Map

222Democrat 97Toss-up 219Republican
270

Make your own map →

The starting map is built from how each state has voted compared with the country as a whole, not from how a state voted on its own. The last two presidential elections, with 2024 counting more than 2020. Then we…

Updated Nov. 4, 2026

?Political Trivia

  • The Way It Was →
  • Yea or Nay? →
  • Split Decision →
  • Pollster →
  • Daily Trivia →

Copyright © 2026 · Goddard Media LLC

Political Wire® is a registered trademark of Goddard Media LLC

Also from Goddard Media: Political Dictionary · Political Job Hunt · Electoral Vote Map

Privacy PolicyCorrections PolicyContact