Can Trump Get Out the Vote?

First Read: “Just look at our new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Donald Trump now has a seven-point lead over Ted Cruz among likely caucus-goers, 32%-25%, with Marco Rubio at 18%.”

“It’s a closer race among past Iowa participants, Trump 29% and Cruz 25%. But among new participants, Trump has a 14-point advantage, 39%-25% — meaning a larger, newer turnout benefits Trump, while a smaller, older turnout helps Cruz. It’s that simple.”

“Are new participants going to flock to the caucus sites on Monday? So far, we’re not seeing it, though participants have until the night of the contest (Feb. 1) to register.”