Who Will Actually Vote in Iowa?

Wall Street Journal: “In other words, if Mr. Trump wins, it will be because he pulled off a difficult feat: Changing the composition of a conservative electorate to draw in more centrist voters.”

“Iowa has been friendly territory for candidates such as Mr. Cruz, who campaign on a strict adherence to conservative policy. In 2012, almost half of Republican caucus-goers—some 47%—described themselves as “very conservative.” A mere 17% rated themselves ideologically moderate or liberal, with the rest calling themselves ‘somewhat conservative.'”

“But there are signs that the ideological mix of the voting pool could be far different on Monday, likely because of the presence of Mr. Trump. If the signals bear out, Mr. Trump will benefit.”