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Kasich Will Likely Hand Arizona to Trump

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Sam Wang: “Today, John Kasich gives the first of a series of gifts to Donald Trump. What’s inside the box? Maybe 58 delegates – from Arizona, which is winner-take-all.”

“Trump leads the last three surveys done in Arizona. His median support is 47% and his median lead over second-place Ted Cruz is 13 percentage points. In addition, a combined 17-27% goes to Kasich and Rubio (several surveys were done before Rubio dropped out). Previously I pointed out that when reassigned, Kasich/Rubio supporters heavily favor Cruz over Trump. If we reassign those voters in a 4:1 ratio, the resulting medians are Trump 42.4%, Cruz 44.6%. This 2-percentage-point difference is small, and would slightly favor Cruz to win.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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