Sam Wang: “Today, John Kasich gives the first of a series of gifts to Donald Trump. What’s inside the box? Maybe 58 delegates – from Arizona, which is winner-take-all.”
“Trump leads the last three surveys done in Arizona. His median support is 47% and his median lead over second-place Ted Cruz is 13 percentage points. In addition, a combined 17-27% goes to Kasich and Rubio (several surveys were done before Rubio dropped out). Previously I pointed out that when reassigned, Kasich/Rubio supporters heavily favor Cruz over Trump. If we reassign those voters in a 4:1 ratio, the resulting medians are Trump 42.4%, Cruz 44.6%. This 2-percentage-point difference is small, and would slightly favor Cruz to win.”
?Political Trivia
Eight moments in political history. Put them on a timeline.
Play →
Five senators. Three bills. Can you guess how they all voted?
Play →
Nine Justices. One case. How did they rule?
Play →
Do you have your finger on the pulse of America?
Play →
Four questions a day.
Play →
A new game every day.