Former Arizona Republican Party executive director Nathan Sproul explains in USA Today why his state could go either way in the 2020 presidential election.
“Even though Arizona is a border state, there is compelling evidence to suggest that ‘build the wall’ rhetoric works better in the Midwest than in Arizona. Our significant Hispanic population has always had a reason to vote Republican when the candidates were Bush and McCain. They both touted guest worker programs and trade with Mexico.”
Also important: “The members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints are one of the most significant voting blocs in Arizona. However, it is far too simple to cluster all these people into the GOP vote. Throughout eastern Arizona, most Latter-day Saints are Democrats. They are the quintessential swing voter.”
See the consensus Electoral Vote Map for other Toss Up states.