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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 190

Trump Is Everywhere

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 190: Trump Is Everywhere

Two Different Paths In Arizona

June 18, 2021 · 12:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “This week, all eyes in Washington have been on Kyrsten Sinema and other moderate senators as they pursue a bipartisan infrastructure bill. But by refusing to eliminate the filibuster, she and other Democratic senators have left in doubt the passage of sweeping voting rights legislation that many on the left view as an existential necessity in the face of a nationwide Republican crackdown.”

“Katie Hobbs, by contrast, has gained newfound fame in her party for facing down withering attacks from Republicans — including death threats against her and her family that prompted round-the-clock security from state troopers — and for denouncing a widely criticized GOP audit of votes in the state’s largest county as a sham and a threat to democracy.”

State House Arizona

New Poll Suggests Arizona Is In Play

August 22, 2019 · 10:53 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new OH Predictive Insights poll in Arizona shows Joe Biden leading President Trump in a general election match up, 45% to 43%.

Trump edges Elizabeth Warren, 44% to 43%, but well within the poll’s margin of error.

Trump leads Bernie Sanders, 44% to 34%, tops Kamala Harris 45% to 36% and leads Pete Buttigieg, 43% to 38%.

Said pollster Mike Noble: “Trump is in the low- to mid-40s, which I’d say is a pretty big red flag. He’s not doing himself any favors for 2020 in a state he won in 2016.”

2020 Campaign Arizona

Why Arizona Is a Toss Up

June 26, 2019 · 7:35 am ET · Leave a Comment

Former Arizona Republican Party executive director Nathan Sproul explains in USA Today why his state could go either way in the 2020 presidential election.

“Even though Arizona is a border state, there is compelling evidence to suggest that ‘build the wall’ rhetoric works better in the Midwest than in Arizona. Our significant Hispanic population has always had a reason to vote Republican when the candidates were Bush and McCain. They both touted guest worker programs and trade with Mexico.”

Also important: “The members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints are one of the most significant voting blocs in Arizona. However, it is far too simple to cluster all these people into the GOP vote. Throughout eastern Arizona, most Latter-day Saints are Democrats. They are the quintessential swing voter.”

See the consensus Electoral Vote Map for other Toss Up states.

2020 Campaign Arizona

Arizona Is Emerging as a Problem for Republicans

May 15, 2019 · 12:14 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Josh Kraushaar: “If there’s one development that threatens to disrupt the best laid plans of Republicans, it’s the transformation of Arizona from a rock-ribbed GOP stronghold into a bona fide battleground state. In recent years, Republicans have struggled to balance the energy of their activist base with the pragmatism necessary to win over the state’s critical mass of suburban independents.”

“At the same time, Democrats are eyeing Arizona as a critical political prize that could make or break their national ambitions. Win Arizona, and the party could withstand a Rust Belt stumble in Wisconsin. Pick off the state’s second Senate seat, and the prospect of an upper-chamber majority becomes more realistic. Hold their 6-3 advantage in the House delegation, and Democrats should feel confident about their ability to maintain control in the lower chamber.”

“There have been some troubling signs for Arizona Republicans in recent weeks.”

2020 Campaign Arizona

Trump Loyalist Now Leads Arizona GOP

May 10, 2019 · 11:08 am ET · Leave a Comment

Los Angeles Times: “In 2016, Donald Trump stormed Washington and swept aside a hostile Republican Party establishment. Now, as he seeks reelection, the president has tightened his grip on the GOP as loyalists — whose main credential is fealty to the White House — seize control of state parties around the country.”

“Trump acolytes have replaced veterans and party insiders in places such as Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, which were crucial to his election, the perennial swing state of Florida, as well as New Hampshire, which holds the first presidential primary.”

“Here in Arizona, an emerging 2020 battleground, the new party chief is Kelli Ward, a former state lawmaker, fierce Trump devotee and twice-failed candidate for U.S. Senate who campaigned against fellow Republicans the way a battering ram meets a brick wall.”

Republicans Arizona

Arizona Lawmakers Declare Porn a Public Health Crisis

May 7, 2019 · 4:29 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Blaming sexual images for ‘poisoning’ the minds of Arizonans, Republican senators adopted a measure declaring pornography a public-health crisis and urging the state to ‘systemically prevent exposure and addiction,'” the Arizona Republic reports.

“The resolution — approved by the House in February — deems the ‘societal damage of pornography…beyond the capability of the individual to address alone.’ It argues that porn can lead to human trafficking, sexual abuse, infidelity, low self-esteem and eating disorders, among other issues.”

Health Care, State House Arizona

Biden Tops Trump In Arizona Match Up

May 7, 2019 · 8:14 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new OH Predictive Insights poll in Arizona finds Joe Biden leading President Trump in a hypothetical presidential election match up, 49% to 44% with 7% undecided.

2020 Campaign Arizona

Trump Campaign Moves to Defend Arizona

April 29, 2019 · 7:27 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The Republican Party is moving early to build a political firewall around Arizona’s critical Electoral College votes, a recognition that the perennial red state is threatening to turn against President Trump in 2020,” the Washington Examiner reports.

“The Trump campaign is hiring Brian Seitchik, a veteran Arizona operative, to run political operations in the state. He could take the helm as early as Wednesday, a full 18 months before Election Day, and would work in tandem with the Republican National Committee to build and oversee an extensive field program supported by paid staff and volunteers.”

The consensus electoral map currently shows Arizona a Toss Up.

2020 Campaign Arizona

Arizona May Declare Porn a Public Health Crisis

February 9, 2019 · 8:27 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Citing concerns about the proliferation of erotic images online and their ‘toxic’ effect on behavior, Arizona lawmakers are pushing to declare pornography a public health crisis,” the Arizona Republic reports.

“Similar measures declaring a crisis have passed in at least 11 states, using similar text from model legislation written by the National Center on Sexual Exploitation. The group, formerly known as Morality in Media, contends porn is directly connected to other acts of exploitation.”

Health Care, State House Arizona

Bonus Quote of the Day

June 13, 2018 · 6:23 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Sixty percent of public school children in the state of Arizona today are minorities. That complicates racial integration because there aren’t enough white kids to go around.”

— Arizona state Rep. David Stringer (R), quoted by the Phoenix New Times, adding that immigration is an “existential threat” to the United States.

Education, Race Arizona

Arizona May No Longer Teach Evolution

May 21, 2018 · 7:11 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The teaching of evolution in Arizona classrooms could be taking a big step backwards,” KVOA-TV reports.

“School Superintendent Diane Douglas is apparently behind a rewrite of science standards for all Arizona school children that would delete references to evolution.”

Education, Science Arizona

Will Trump Attack Flake In Arizona?

August 22, 2017 · 7:32 am ET · Leave a Comment

President Trump “faces a decision on Tuesday evening with profound implications for his already strained relationship with the GOP: Whether to attack a vulnerable Republican senator on his home turf,” Politico reports.

“While White House officials won’t say exactly what’s on Trump’s agenda when he holds a campaign-style rally here, there is a widespread expectation that he will go after GOP Sen. Jeff Flake, a loud critic of the president who recently published an anti-Trump manifesto, Conscience of a Conservative.”

Flake to the Los Angeles Times: “I don’t worry about it at all.”

2018 Campaign Arizona, Jeff Flake

Clinton to Campaign In Arizona

October 28, 2016 · 12:45 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Hillary Clinton will campaign in Arizona next Wednesday, her campaign announced.

The latest HuffPost Pollster average shows the presidential race is a dead heat.

2016 Campaign Arizona

Bonus Quote of the Day

October 27, 2016 · 10:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Nah. They don’t get out and vote. They don’t vote.”

— Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R), quoted by the Boston Globe, on whether Latino voters could help Hillary Clinton win Arizona.

2016 Campaign Arizona, Jan Brewer

Michelle Obama Makes Play for Arizona

October 20, 2016 · 9:57 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“First lady Michelle Obama didn’t even need to say the word ‘Arizona’ for the first 20 minutes of her rally here on Thursday to send shock waves across the state,” Politico reports.

“The very presence of the Democrats’ most coveted surrogate in the traditionally deep-red state was enough to send the message that Hillary Clinton is taking it seriously, and Obama’s appeal to local Democrats just hours after the final debate was designed to make the stakes clear.”

2016 Campaign Arizona

Trump At Risk of Losing Arizona

October 16, 2016 · 3:41 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Three weeks until Election Day, the Trump campaign and the RNC are at risk of letting historically red Arizona slip away,” NBC News reports.

Said GOP operative Matthew Benson: “Barring something unforeseen, Trump is going to lose Arizona, and you’re still not seeing the type of activity you’d expect to see if he expects to save it.”

“The campaign has placed few resources in the state. There are five staffers aiding Trump’s bid, paid for by a combination of the campaign, the RNC and the Arizona Republican Party.”

2016 Campaign Arizona

Clinton Has Huge Swing State Lead with Latinos

September 14, 2016 · 11:31 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Univision poll of Latino voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida and Nevada shows Hillary Clinton trouncing Donald Trump among this critical voting bloc.

In Florida, Trump trails Clinton by 24 percentage points — the closest margin out of the four states. Clinton leads Trump 68% to 18% in Arizona, 65% to 19% in Nevada and 62% to 17% in Colorado.

Florida, Colorado and Nevada are three battleground states where Latinos are likely to make up more than 10% of the electorate this year.

2016 Campaign Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada

Clinton Makes Major Ad Buy In Arizona

September 1, 2016 · 7:46 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The Clinton campaign is looking to turn up the heat with an ambitious ad buy in Arizona — a state that no democratic presidential candidate has won in the past 20 years,” ABC News reports.

“The six-figure ad buy will begin with their previously released spot titled, Role Model — which an aide described as their “most effective ad of the summer.”

2016 Campaign Arizona

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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