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Archives for March 2016

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The Best Scenario to Block Trump

March 14, 2016 at 9:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Sam Wang runs an interesting simulation showing that if Donald Trump loses Ohio, it might actually be the best way for him to win the Republican nomination.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members

Trump Leads In North Carolina

March 14, 2016 at 9:09 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 44%, followed by Ted Cruz at 33%, John Kasich at 11% and Marco Rubio at 7%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: North Carolina

Trump Has the Lead In Missouri

March 14, 2016 at 8:50 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 17 Comments

A new Docking Institute poll in Missouri finds Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential race with 36%, followed by Ted Cruz at 29%, Marco Rubio at 9% and John Kasich at 8%.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 47% to 40%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Missouri


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The Hunt for Double-Agent Delegates

March 14, 2016 at 8:41 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 35 Comments

Bloomberg: “In many states, primaries and caucuses are just the most public face-off in a multi-step process to select the individual delegates who will choose the party’s nominee. Only a small share of the 2,472 total convention delegates are free to pick the candidate of their choice, regardless of the election’s outcome, on the first ballot, while about three-quarters of them are gradually freed to do so on subsequent votes.”

“That means there is a small pool of so-called unbound delegates who are pure free agents, but a much larger number who can be recruited throughout the spring as double agents—delegates who arrive in Cleveland pledged to Trump, all the while working in cahoots with one of his opponents and confessing their true allegiances once it is safe to do so.”

Said Iowa operative Grant Young: “Of any of the campaigns the Ted Cruz people are the best-positioned.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign

Trump Holds Commanding Lead In Florida

March 14, 2016 at 8:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 42 Comments

A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leading the GOP primary race with 46%, followed by Marco Rubio at 22%, Ted Cruz at 14% and John Kasich at 10%.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 60% to 34%.

A new Monmouth poll in Florida finds Trump leading with 44%, followed by Rubio at 27%, Cruz at 17% and Kasich at 9%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

Inside Kasich’s Long Shot Strategy at Blocking Trump

March 14, 2016 at 8:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

Strategists for Gov. John Kasich “are studying arcane party rules that they believe could offer a path to the Republican nomination if he wins his home state,” Reuters reports.

“It is a long-shot strategy, both for Kasich and the anti-Trump forces inside the party. But if fellow GOP candidate Marco Rubio loses his own state of Florida on Tuesday – as polls predict – a surge by Kasich may be the only viable strategy for Republicans looking to stop Trump from getting the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.”

“Kasich supporters are betting that an Ohio win will give his candidacy its first real momentum, attracting donors and endorsements. From there, he could score more victories in upcoming primaries in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Wisconsin, Connecticut and California, states where Kasich polls favorably.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: John Kasich

Trump and Kasich Deadlocked In Ohio

March 14, 2016 at 7:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio finds Donald Trump and John Kasich tied in the GOP presidential race at 38%, followed by Ted Cruz at 16% and Marco Rubio at 3%.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton edges Bernie Sanders 51% to 46%.

A new Monmouth poll finds Kasich leading with 40%, followed by Trump at 35%, Cruz at 15% and Rubio at 5%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Ohio

A Week of Trump’s Lies and Exaggerations

March 14, 2016 at 7:49 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 15 Comments

“With the GOP front-runner scooping up delegates in a march toward the Republican nomination, Politico subjected a week’s worth of his words to our magazine’s fact-checking process… The result: more than five dozen statements deemed mischaracterizations, exaggerations, or simply false – the kind of stuff that would have been stripped from one of our stories, or made the whole thing worthy of the spike. It equates to roughly one misstatement every five minutes on average.”

“From warning of the death of Christianity in America to claiming that he is taking no money from donors, the Manhattan billionaire and reality-show celebrity said something far from truthful many times over to the thousands of people packed into his raucous rallies. His remarks represent an extraordinary mix of inaccurate claims about domestic and foreign policy and personal and professional boasts that rarely measure up when checked against primary sources.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Donald Trump

Perez Emerges as Sleeper Veep for Clinton

March 14, 2016 at 7:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 65 Comments

“Aside from the wonkiest of Washington circles and the most progressive corners of the left, no one’s heard of Tom Perez. He isn’t young or handsome. He has zero foreign policy experience. The highest office he’s ever been elected to is a suburban county council.” Politico reports.

“Yet the Labor secretary has emerged as a vice presidential sleeper pick, with chatter building among top Democrats—including Elizabeth Warren.”

“The idea of Perez making the leap to vice president is, on the face of it, inconceivable: Aside from his limited experience in elected office, it’s not like Clinton would need him to win Maryland… Except Perez has more credibility with committed progressives – who measure politicians in battle scars – than almost anyone else around.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Tom Perez

Trump Dumps Illinois Director

March 14, 2016 at 7:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

“Donald Trump’s Illinois campaign director has been sidelined after the national campaign grew furious over what sources described as a lack of organization in the state in the run-up to Tuesday’s primary,” Politico reports.

Kent Gray was pushed aside “early last week after the Trump camp learned he made few inroads with get-out-the-vote efforts and organizing volunteers.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Donald Trump, Illinois

Ohio’s Recovery Not Quite as Kasich Describes

March 14, 2016 at 7:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 17 Comments

New York Times: “Ohio has indeed gained several hundred thousand jobs since Mr. Kasich took office, and he turned an imposing budget gap into a surplus while also cutting income taxes, all accomplishments that back up his boasts.”

“But a closer review of his record shows the reality is more complicated. Other states recovered from the recession more quickly than Ohio did. He closed the budget shortfall in part by cutting aid to local governments, forcing some of them to raise their own taxes or cut services. And increasing sales taxes helped make the income tax cuts possible.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, State House Tagged With: John Kasich, Ohio

Romney Will Campaign with Kasich

March 13, 2016 at 10:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 60 Comments

“Mitt Romney will campaign with John Kasich Monday at two stops in Ohio,” NBC News reports.

“Romney is not expected to endorse the Ohio governor during the campaign swing, the source said, but it will be the first time Romney has campaigned on behalf of a Republican candidate this cycle.”

For members: The Best Way to Lose a Republican Primary

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: John Kasich, Mitt Romney, Ohio

What If Trump Loses Ohio?

March 13, 2016 at 5:57 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 23 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

March 15th is a big day for Donald Trump. If he wins in Ohio and Florida, he’ll be virtually unstoppable for the Republican nomination.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: Donald Trump, Florida, Illiinois, Missouri, Ohio

Trump Makes Big Push in Ohio

March 13, 2016 at 4:16 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 107 Comments

Donald Trump has postponed his Monday night rally scheduled in Florida and will instead hold an event in Ohio, The Hill reports.

Most polls show Trump way ahead in Florida but locked in a tight race with Gov. John Kasich in Ohio ahead the March 15 primary.

For members: What If Trump Loses Ohio?

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign

D’Amato Warns of Revolution in the GOP

March 13, 2016 at 4:10 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 57 Comments

Former Sen. Al D’Amato (R-NY) said that if Republicans stop Donald Trump from securing the nomination by changing the rules would cause a “revolution” in the party, The Hill reports.

Said D’Amato: “You’ve got people like that trying to stop Trump, and I think they should be ashamed of themselves. If they want to be for a candidate, be for a candidate, come out for the candidate, campaign for the candidate. But don’t just go on with this business, ‘We want a stalemated convention so that the powerbrokers – whoever’s left of them – can decide.'”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Al D'Amato

Ex-Rivals Refuse to Endorse Remaining Candidates

March 13, 2016 at 12:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 41 Comments

Ballot Access News: “Five of the recognized Republican presidential candidates who had been running for president, but who have dropped out, still have not endorsed any other Republican for the nomination. They are Jeb Bush, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, and Rand Paul.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign

The GOP Primary Is Quickly Becoming the Hunger Games

March 13, 2016 at 12:36 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Donald Trump appeared on several Sunday morning shows and was asked about the violence that now surrounds his presidential campaign — as well as his seeming encouragement of this violence.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members

Trump Way Ahead in Florida

March 13, 2016 at 9:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments

A new NBC News/Marist poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 43%, followed by Marco Rubio at 22%, Ted Cruz at 21% and John Kasich at 9%.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 61% to 34%.

A new CBS News/YouGov survey finds Trump leading with 44%, followed by Cruz at 24%, Rubio at 21% and Kasich at 9%.

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Sanders, 62% to 34%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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