A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds President Trump’s approval rate underwater at 46% to 51%.
In general election match ups, Joe Biden leads Trump 51% to 46%, Elizabeth Warren beats him 49% to 46% and Bernie Sanders is up 50% to 47%. It’s notable that regardless of the Democrat he’s tested against, Trump always polls at 46-47%.
“I think it is the last gasp of a dying majority here. And every single one of those House members and state senators are going to be up for election next year along with me running for re-election for governor. And there will be a judgment day in North Carolina.”
— North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D), quoted by the Raleigh News & Observer, on Republicans calling a surprise budget veto override vote with few Democrats present.
North Carolina State Board of Elections Chairman Robert Cordle resigned from the board Tuesday after he opened a statewide conference for hundreds of election officials Monday with a joke about cows and sex, WRAL reports.
The joke was republished by Wataugha Watch — and yes, it was completely inappropriate.
In a campaign speech, Justice Paul Newby (R) compared his six Democratic colleagues to freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, “who has become something of a boogeyman for Republicans looking to highlight the national Democratic Party’s leftward shift,” WRAL reports.
Said Newby: “Imagine seven ‘AOCs’ on the state Supreme Court Well, folks, we got six. It’s six to one.”
He then took issue with those who complain about the United States: “If we’re as bad as the other side says we are, I will buy you a ticket to leave. I mean, just leave… We don’t build walls to keep you in. We’ve got to have a wall to keep you out if you’re trying to get here illegally.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds President Trump with an upside down approval rating, 46% to 49%.
In hypothetical match ups with the five leading Democratic candidates for President, Trump ranges from trailing by 3 points to leading by 3 points. Trump gets 46 or 47% regardless of the Democrat he’s tested against, while the level of support for the Democrats fluctuates based on their name recognition.
The two Democrats with leads over Trump are the best known: Joe Biden is up 49% to 46% on him and Bernie Sanders is up 48% to 47%. Trump narrowly leads the lesser known Democrats: it’s a 47% to 46% edge over Kamala Harris, a 48% to 46% one over Elizabeth Warren, and a 47% to 44% one over Pete Buttigieg.
First Read: “All of the early looks at the 2020 electoral map have ignored a battleground state that was all the rage back in ’16: North Carolina. And you can argue it has the potential to be a fascinating state to watch over the next year and half.”
“You have the competitive NC-9 election this September.”
“It’s a presidential battleground whose electoral votes (15) are greater than Wisconsin’s and New Hampshire’s combined (14). (Yes, Hillary Clinton ultimately lost the state to Trump by 3 points in 2016, but she also led in the pre-Comey polls there.)”
“Its 2020 Senate race, with Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) up for re-election, could determine if Dems can win back the chamber – if they land a solid recruit there. Its gubernatorial race, with Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper up for re-election, could be the most competitive 2020 governor’s race of the cycle.”
“And oh, Republicans are having their presidential convention in Charlotte.”
CBS News: “A federal judge has declared a North Carolina law banning women from having abortions after the 20th week of pregnancy except in an urgent medical emergency is unconstitutional. The decision Monday by U.S. District Judge William Osteen in Greensboro gave state legislators 60 days before his ruling takes effect to allow them to amend abortion restrictions or appeal his ruling to a higher court.”
“The U.S. Supreme Court has protected abortion as a constitutional right until a fetus has developed enough to live outside the mother’s womb. The judge noted that North Carolina’s own medical expert conceded that’s almost never possible until the 22nd week of gestation.”
“North Carolina state election officials told federal prosecutors in January 2017 that they found evidence of efforts to manipulate the absentee ballot vote in rural Bladen County in the 2016 election and warned that such activities ‘will likely continue for future elections’ if not addressed,” the Washington Post reports.
“Similar charges have roiled this year’s race in the 9th Congressional District between Republican Mark Harris and Democrat Dan McCready. Harris defeated McCready by just 905 votes, but the state board declined to certify the results amid allegations that fraud may have tainted the outcome.”
“Yet another redistricting lawsuit has been filed in North Carolina, this one challenging General Assembly boundaries that Democrats and election reform advocates say are illegally tainted by excessive favoritism toward Republicans,” the Greensboro News & Record reports.
“Common Cause North Carolina, the state Democratic Party and Democratic and unaffiliated voters sued GOP mapmakers Tuesday in Wake County court. They allege the lines are illegal partisan gerrymanders that make it virtually impossible for Democrats to win majorities in the House or Senate.”
A ruling by a panel of federal judges raised the potential of drawing new congressional districts in North Carolina before November’s election, the Charlotte Observer reports.
“Among the court’s proposed remedies this time: Redrawing the districts before November and holding a general election without a primary election, or redrawing the districts, holding a primary election in November and holding a general election sometime before Congress is seated in January 2019. The court also said it might allow the General Assembly another chance at redrawing the districts.”
Nate Silver: “If North Carolina were required to redistrict, would be worth another two seats or so for Democrats. Although with a high margin for error because of all of this happening at such a late date.”
Rick Hasen: “In a case with potentially national implications both short term and long, a three judge district court in North Carolina has held that the congressional redistricting plan—put in place after North Carolina’s districts last time were found to be a racial gerrymander—are an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. The remedy is not set yet, but the court may have a remedy in place for the 2018 elections, something I find surprising.”
“If this opinion stands (and given the current 4-4 split on the Supreme Court, any emergency action could well fail, leaving the lower court opinion in place), the court may well order new districts be drawn in time for the 2018 elections.”
“For the first time in anyone’s memory, nearly all 170 state legislative races in North Carolina will feature both a Republican and Democratic candidate,” the Raleigh News and Observer reports.
“Candidate filing ended at noon Wednesday, leaving just one uncontested race for state House or state Senate after a heavy recruiting push from both the NC Democratic Party and the NC Republican Party.”
The U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear North Carolina’s appeal of a court ruling that found its legislature intended to discriminate against minorities in enacting one of the toughest voter ID laws in the nation, NBC News reports.
Rick Hasen: “These days at the Supreme Court, getting the Court not to hear a voting case is a significant victory. While the Court could well issue an adverse decision in the future, the 4th Circuit opinion stays on the books for now, and it has already been relied upon to hold other strict voting laws illegal.”
“North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature and its Democratic governor announced late Wednesday that they had reached an agreement to repeal the controversial state law that curbs legal protections for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people and sets rules that affect transgender bathroom use in public buildings,” the New York Times reports.
“But gay rights advocates raised objections, arguing that the compromise would continue to allow discrimination. And it was unclear late Wednesday whether the deal, if approved, would end the boycotts by sports leagues, businesses and others that have harmed the state’s reputation and economy.”
Washington Post: “This week, lawmakers are facing a clear deadline imposed by the NCAA, which gave North Carolina until Thursday to change the law if it wants to host any college sports championships through 2022.”
“Despite Republican assurances that North Carolina’s ‘bathroom bill’ isn’t hurting the economy, the law limiting LGBT protections will cost the state more than $3.76 billion in lost business over a dozen years,” according to an Associated Press analysis.
“Over the past year, North Carolina has suffered financial hits ranging from scuttled plans for a PayPal facility that would have added an estimated $2.66 billion to the state’s economy to a canceled Ringo Starr concert that deprived a town’s amphitheater of about $33,000 in revenue. The blows have landed in the state’s biggest cities as well as towns surrounding its flagship university, and from the mountains to the coast.”
“With just one day to go before he leaves office, North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory (R) threw a legal Hail Mary to the U.S. Supreme Court in another apparent effort to undermine his Democratic successor’s ability to govern,” the Washington Post reports.
“McCrory filed an emergency request to the Supreme Court, asking the justices to pause court-ordered special elections for more than two dozen state legislative districts in 2017 — special elections in which Democrats could have an opportunity to pick up seats in North Carolina’s GOP-dominated legislature.”
Rick Hasen: “My guess is that the Court does not issue the stay.”
Meanwhile, the Raleigh News & Observer reports McCrory hung his official portrait in the governor’s office for Gov.-elect Roy Cooper (D) to see upon taking office on New Year’s Day.
“A North Carolina judge has temporarily blocked a law, passed by the state’s Republican-controlled legislature and signed by GOP Gov. Pat McCrory, that would curb the incoming Democratic governor’s ability to control statewide and county election boards,” Politico reports.
“Gov.-elect Roy Cooper filed a lawsuit over the new law Friday afternoon, asking a Wake County Superior Court judge to stop it from taking effect while the suit proceeds. The judge granted the stay request and scheduled another hearing on the case next week.”
Politico: “The road to political morass began six years ago in North Carolina, when national Republican donors and strategists launched a concerted effort to create a bulwark against the emerging multiracial, center-left coalition that swept Barack Obama into the White House. They sank millions of dollars into cheaply bought local and state races, seizing control of the statehouse for the first time since a now-unrecognizable Republican Party that supported racial integration and voting rights for African-Americans held it during Reconstruction.”
“Because 2010 happened to be a once-a-decade redistricting year, the new Republican majority gerrymandered districts in which Democrats couldn’t win—which resulted in ever-more-hardline conservatives winning primaries in each election. A Southern economic powerhouse once known for a careful, if awkward, political balance (from 1999 to 2003, the state’s voters sent both John Edwards and Jesse Helms to the U.S. Senate) became a conservative lab experiment.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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