Virginia Move on Felons Won’t Impact Vote Much

Nate Cohn: “There was considerable fretting — or satisfaction — over Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s decision Friday to re-enfranchise 200,000 ex-felons in Virginia.”

“The state will be one of the central battlegrounds this November, and it’s widely believed that ex-felons will vote heavily for Democrats… But the electoral effect of felon re-enfranchisement is likely to be modest. The best-case scenario for Democrats might be that they improve their popular vote margin by a half-point. That’s a big deal, but only in a close election.”

“The reason is deceptively straightforward. Ex-felons are less likely to vote than nonfelons, even when ex-felons are eligible to vote.”