Huffington Post: “The short version is that Nate is changing the results of polls to fit where he thinks the polls truly are, rather than simply entering the poll numbers into his model and crunching them.”
“Silver calls this unskewing a ‘trend line adjustment.’ He compares a poll to previous polls conducted by the same polling firm, makes a series of assumptions, runs a regression analysis, and gets a new poll number. That’s the number he sticks in his model ― not the original number.”
“He may end up being right, but he’s just guessing. A ‘trend line adjustment’ is merely political punditry dressed up as sophisticated mathematical modeling.”
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