A Catastrophic Polling Error

Politico: “It’s possible Donald Trump’s upset victory this week was powered by a surge of late deciders. Or the mysterious group often referred as “shy Trump” voters somehow escaped their radar. Many in the polling industry are also second-guessing their turnout modeling, trying to discern whether there’s a serious flaw that went unnoticed.”

“No matter the root cause, an industry already reeling from a series of misses in the United States and overseas is engaging is a round of serious introspection. While the data streams required to evaluate whether they modeled the electorate incorrectly — or whether Trump voters disproportionately wouldn’t respond to polls — won’t be available for months, already the nation’s leading professional organization of pollsters is admitting they “clearly got it wrong this time” and pledging to study the causes of the errors.”