Although Emmanuel Macron leads in every poll, Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin says differentiated turnout could tip the French election to Marine Le Pen:
We ran simulations with the latest polling data and, with an overall turnout of 72% and voting intentions of 59% to 41% in favor of Macron, if Le Pen’s prospective voters turn out at a rate of 88% vs 61% for Macron, then she would win.
Differentiated turnout to Le Pen’s advantage is a realistic scenario as polls show Macron’s support is more tepid than hers and that French voters currently view her second round campaign stronger than Macron’s (a Harris Interactive poll found 61% of the French population think Le Pen kicked off her second round campaign well compared to 52% who believe Macron did not), that only 40% of people actually want to see Macron elected, and that first-round voters of moderate and left-leaning candidates eliminated from the runoff could abstain en masse.
