What Democrats’ Losses in 2010 Can Tell Us About 2018

Nate Cohn: “If the political consequences of President Trump’s health bill are anything like those of President Obama’s, the vote on Thursday could become a litmus test for moderate, Democratic-leaning voters who often vote Republican in statewide or congressional elections.”

“A study by the political scientists Brendan Nyhan, Eric McGhee, John Sides, Seth Masket and Steven Greene showed that the Democrats who voted against the A.C.A. outperformed those who voted for it by a net 10 to 15 points in 2010… Our estimates are lower, at around 5 to 10 points, in part because many of the Democratic A.C.A. opponents fared particularly well in the 2008 elections, but it’s a considerable effect either way.”

“This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Democrats would have done 5 to 10 points better in the 2010 midterm elections if they had never pursued the Affordable Care Act. It just means that the members who didn’t vote for it did better than those who did.”