Why Republicans May Face a Turnout Problem In 2018

David Wasserman: “Trump’s upset was powered by white voters without college degrees. The problem for Republicans? Voters without college degrees have a dismal track record of voting in off-year elections. This is similar to the problem Obama had: His base of young and non-white voters also had a terrible history of showing up in off years. That didn’t change after he took office, and it cost Democrats dearly in 2010 and 2014.”

“Simply put, 2018 is on track to be the ‘Year of the Angry White College Graduate.’ I’d estimate the college-educated share of the electorate will be around 43 or 44 percent next year, up from 39 percent in 2016. That’s dreadful news for Republicans: These voters have indicated the highest intensity of opposition to Trump in polls, and we’ve already seen them power Democrats to victory in Virginia and Alabama.”