Most Insiders See Democrats Taking the House

Stu Rothenberg: “Seven and a half months before the midterm elections, the combination of attitudinal and behavioral evidence leads to a single conclusion: The Democrats are very likely to win control of the House in November.”

“President Trump’s job approval rating has settled into a relatively narrow range, with between 39% and 42% of registered voters approving of his performance. Only 33% to 37% of respondents say that the country is headed in the right direction, another bit of evidence that reflects the extent of support for Trump and the Republican Party.”

“The current congressional generic ballot question suggests that Democrats have an 8- or 9-point advantage, a significant margin even if it is at least a couple of points below what Democrats would ideally want going into the midterms.”

“Taken together, these numbers paint a dangerous picture for the president and his party.”