Democrats See a Reversion to the 2012 Political Mean

The following post for members is from G. Elliott Morris of The Crosstab.

One of the conversations we’ve been having throughout the 2017/18 cycle is whether the political environment from 2012 or from 2016 is more predictive of the one we’re in now. Now, with so many special elections under our belt, we have a pretty good answer: 2012. The correlation between President Obama’s vote margin and the Democratic vote margin in a district is higher than between Democrats and Hillary Clinton’s. But that’s just the surface-level take.