7 Risk Factors for House Republicans

The Cook Political Report identifies “seven risk factors” for House GOP incumbents in the midterm elections:

  • Sits in a district with a Cook PVI score of R+5 or less Republican.
  • Sits in a district that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.
  • Received 55 percent of the vote or less in the 2016 election (or a 2017 special election).
  • Voted in favor of the American Health Care Act in the May 4 roll call vote.
  • Voted in favor of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in the December 19 roll call vote.
  • Raised less money than at least one Democratic opponent in the first quarter of 2018.
  • Has a Democratic opponent with at least $200,000 in cash on hand as of March 31.

“Only one incumbent, Rep. Steve Knight (CA-25), has all seven risk factors. Eight incumbents have six risk factors, 23 incumbents have five, 23 incumbents have four and 32 have three.”

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