Democrats Expand the Playing Field

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “This week, we’re adding 10 new districts to our list of competitive seats. We’re also making four other ratings changes that make some races already listed in our ratings more competitive.”

“Overall, our House outlook remains the same: Democrats are about 50-50 to win the House. What these ratings change do is make clear that in the event of a big wave, there are some districts that might not seem competitive on paper that could flip, particularly because a deep bench of Democratic candidates is in place to capitalize on a potentially great environment in the fall. That’s where one could see Democrats picking up substantially more than the 23 net seats they need to win House control. However, the Democratic wave could fail to materialize, and Democratic gains could be limited to the teens. At this juncture, the range of possibilities in the House is wide.”

“We realize that may be an unsatisfying and overly cautious assessment, but that’s where we’re at right now with the election still half a year away.”