Why Democrats Have a Shot at Taking the Senate

First Read: “Here’s a question to ponder: Who would you rather be right now — Republican Josh Hawley in Missouri’s Senate race or Democrat Phil Bredesen in Tennessee? If your answer is Bredesen (who has a slight lead in the polls) over Hawley (who’s essentially tied as Missouri looks to impeach the state’s GOP governor), then it’s not all that hard to see how Democrats could gain the net of two seats they need to win the Senate in November.”

Here’s our latest Top 10 Senate takeover list ranked in order of most likely to flip parties:

1. Nevada – R
2. Arizona – R
3. North Dakota – D
4. Tennessee – R
5. Missouri – D
6. Indiana – D
7. West Virginia – D
8. Florida – D
9. Wisconsin – D
10. Montana – D

“So if the first two Senate races on our list flip parties (Nevada and Arizona) and nothing else does, then Democrats net their two-seat pickup. Ditto if just the first four seats (Nevada, Arizona, North Dakota, Tennessee) switch hands.”