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Making More Sense of the Generic Ballot

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The following post for members is by G. Elliott Morris of The Crosstab.

How many times have you seen a variant of the following headlines this year? “Democrats reach new high in midterm race” or “Democrats’ 2018 advantage is nearly gone,” or maybe even “New poll shows GOP now leads in 2018 generic ballot?”  These angles are a product of either bad data analysis — pundits and prognosticators crafting narratives from too few data points — or a focus on too-quick-to-move averages of generic ballot polls when we’re still 156 days (!) away from the November 6 midterm elections.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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