Will a Supreme Court Fight Get Democrats to Vote?

David Weigel: “No hyperbole here: The retirement of Justice Anthony M. Kennedy fulfills a conservative dream and a liberal nightmare. By October, Republican senators fully intend to have replaced Kennedy with one of the conservative judges on President Trump’s list. For the next few months, money will pour into red and purple states, urging Democratic senators to confirm whomever Trump nominates and condemning them if they don’t. It’s the most important story in America, and the most predictable.”

“What’s not predictable is the effect this will have on the midterms. As soon as the Kennedy news broke, the hot takes began cooking, and most of them scored for the Republicans. The most commonly cited data was the 2016 exit poll, which found 21 percent of voters citing the Supreme Court’s open seat — held open, by Republicans, to deny Barack Obama his final appointment — as their top issue. Fifty-six percent of those voters backed Trump over Clinton. There you go: Republicans get excited by Supreme Court fights, and liberals go to sleep.”

“But is that true?”