Trump’s Base Is Weaker Than It Seems

Peter Enns, Jonathon Schuldt and Adrienne Scott: “The key to our analysis was to divide Republicans into three groups: those who say they identify strongly with the Republican Party; those who identify as Republicans but not strongly; and those who call themselves independents but say they lean toward the Republican Party. These distinctions, often obscured in media coverage, are important because research shows that the strength of a voter’s partisan identity has an important effect on their political attitudes.”

“Among strong Republicans, Trump’s overall approval rating is 93%, with 78% ‘strongly’ approving of the president. The problem for Trump, however, is that these voters make up less than half of the Republican electorate — and 18% of likely voters.”

“Among the larger number of Republicans who identify less strongly with their party, Trump is much less popular. For example, Trump’s overall approval rating among not-so-strong Republicans is 72%, with 38% saying they strongly approve. Thirty-four percent say they only ‘somewhat’ approve of Trump. Those numbers are similar among independent-leaning Republicans.”

“To be sure, having reservations about the president doesn’t mean Republican voters will abandon their party and vote for Democrats in the autumn. But it does raise the question of how much Republican congressional candidates can count on those who ‘somewhat approve’ of Trump.”