Sean Trende: “On its face, Tuesday night seemed uneventful, or even good news for the Republican Party. Aside from a few primaries here and there, the main event was the House special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District. Republican candidate Troy Balderson appears to have narrowly defeated Danny O’Connor (pending a count of around 3,500 provisional ballots).”
“But the truth is more complicated. The results were fully consistent with a Democratic wave in the house washing up on our shores in November. While there’s still time between now and then, there’s not a lot of time, and we’re at the point where these elections start to be very suggestive, if not fully predictive.”
First Read: “Taking last night’s primary and special election results in total, there are at least four reasons to think that — if it takes this much energy and money for Republicans to pull out one-off wins in special elections in red districts — there’s no way they’ll be able to do it in 435 places at once come November.”
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