The Feast or Famine Risk for Democrats

Nate Silver: “It’s much to Democrats’ credit that there are so many districts in play in all corners of the country. (Based on our accounting, Democrats have fielded a nominee in all but three of the 435 congressional districts nationwide). But if you had to pinpoint the exact districts that Democrats will win to gain 23 seats and take the House majority, you’d have a pretty hard time. We have only 215 seats rated as ‘lean Democrat’ or better for the Democrats, fewer than the 218 they need to take the House.”

“Nonetheless, Democrats are favored to win the majority if current conditions hold because they’ll have a bunch of opportunities, even as underdogs, to win those extra seats: 14 toss-up races, 19 ‘lean Republican’ races and 53 ‘likely Republican’ contests. Those are a lot of lottery tickets to punch, even if Democrats aren’t necessarily favored in any individual race.”

“The problem for Democrats would come if there’s a shift in the national climate toward Republicans, or even a relatively modest systematic polling error on Election Day in the GOP’s favor.”