Any October Surprises Will Likely Help Democrats

Walter Shapiro: “Right now, the consensus of soothsayers suggests that the Democrats will take back the House. Nate Silver, for example, at his FiveThirtyEight website gives the Democrats a 73 percent chance of regaining the speaker’s gavel, and his model suggest a pickup of 34 House seats.”

“But when you factor in the possibility of the unexpected, I would argue that the Democrats’ chances to win the House are actually higher. On the Senate side, the daunting map for Democrats still makes it a stretch, regardless of external events.”

“Obviously, if I could predict the future, including black-swan events, I would be in a more lucrative racket than journalism. But when you think of the Trump presidency and the various types of potential October surprises, it is hard to concoct a scenario that would aid the Republicans.”