Too Early to Say Who ‘Wins’ from Kavanaugh Fight

Nate Silver: “Overall, I’m inclined to conclude there’s actually something there for Republicans — that their position has genuinely improved from where it was a week ago (although, not necessarily as compared to where it was a month ago). But I’m also wary of the idea that this is necessarily a turning point, since it wouldn’t take much — a couple of good generic ballot polls for Democrats, plus a handful of good state-level results in places like North Dakota — to reverse the GOP gains in our forecast. There is truth in the idea that Republicans have had a decent week of polling, but it can also be exaggerated by cherry-picking data that’s consistent with a particular narrative.”

“Finally, it should go without saying that this is still a dynamic situation, and it doesn’t necessarily follow that the party that ‘wins’ the battle over Kavanaugh will benefit electorally. The opposite could prove true.”