The Path for a GOP Surprise on Election Night

The following post for members is by G. Elliot Morris of The Crosstab.

At this point, we know almost everything we’re going to know about the national environment in 2018. There is a slight chance that polls can change in the final 9 days of the campaign — see: 2016 election — but likely no more than a point or so, according to the distribution of historical error. That means that Democrats are going to lead in the polls by as few as 7 and as many as 9 percentage points on November 6th. Moreover, combined with other indicators, the actual chance in forecast national votes will likely fluctuate no more than 0.5 points in the next week and a half. So, the race is basically set where it currently lies.