Senate Toss Ups Usually Break One Way

Jennifer Duffy: “One interesting phenomenon in Senate elections is that the races in the Toss Up column never break down the middle; one party wins a majority of them.”

“Going back 10 cycles to 1998, the lowest percentage of Toss Up seats one party won was in 2002 when Republicans won 67 percent (6 of 9 races). In 2004, 2006 and 2014, one party took 89 percent of the contests in Toss Up. In 2004, Republicans won 8 of 9 races, but in 2006, Democrats took 8 of 9 races. In 2014, Republicans won 8 of 9 contests. That there were nine races in Toss Up in all three years and there are nine this year is purely a coincidence.”