History Suggests Trump Will Face Primary Challenge

Josh Spivak: “With Trump still retaining a stranglehold on the GOP base, a successful primary challenge seems unlikely. But if history is any judge, an intraparty battle — even if the challenger is unsuccessful — could be devastating for the incumbent.”

“No sitting President who sought his party’s nomination has been denied it since Chester Arthur in 1884 — Arthur only got the office following President James Garfield’s assassination. And presidents who face a serious re-election challenge have regularly gone down in defeat in the general election.”

Earlier for members: Trump governs like he’s worried about a primary.