Biden’s Early Polling Lead Probably Doesn’t Matter

Jonathan Bernstein: “With polls showing Biden and Sanders on top – not just nationwide, but in the early-voting states as well – I’ve seen a few pundits wondering whether the contest is less open than it once seemed. I think that’s a mistake. Yes, it’s better to have good poll numbers than bad. But we’ve already seen one candidate, Beto O’Rourke, have a polling surge. We’re almost certain to see others. If history tells us anything, it’s that almost any candidate can have at least a temporary surge, usually accompanied by a round of media attention. Many of those surges eventually collapse, but sometimes – think Barack Obama in 2008, or Sanders in 2016 – they persist.”