Democrats Lose Special Election Magic

Philip Bump: “You may recall that, as the 2018 midterms approached, the results of special election contests were seen as a measure of Democratic enthusiasm. In contest after contest, Democrats were picking up seats and beating Clinton’s 2016 margins by double-digits.”

“Since last November, though, the picture has been different. From November 2016 through March 2017, Democrats overperformed by an average of 9 points compared to 2016 in nine special elections. Since the midterms, Republicans have overperformed by an average of 1 point — and have picked up four seats that were held by Democrats.”