Why the Economy Might Not Save Trump In 2020

Philip Bump: “Shortly before the election, we looked at two conflicting metrics that suggested very different results in the House contests.”

“According to Gallup data on past midterm elections, the strength of the economy suggested the Republicans would lose only a few seats in the House, fewer than 10 — at least, if past behavior was a guide. At the same time, though, Trump’s unpopularity meant it was more likely that the Republicans would lose far more seats, perhaps as many as 40.”

“Both of those things couldn’t be true. The Republicans couldn’t both fare decently because of the healthy economy and terribly because of the unpopular president.”

“They lost 41 seats. The ‘unpopular president’ theory was a better predictor of the results than the ‘good economy’ one.”