Biden’s Early State Numbers Look Like Past Winners

Harry Enten: “Joe Biden is enjoying a large lead in national primary polls. Primaries, of course, aren’t all conducted at once, but rather are held in a sequential fashion, with the early contests of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina being pivotal. Indeed, many national primary polling frontrunners first started showing weakness in early state polling.”

“Unlike those frontrunners — and importantly for his election chances — Biden’s early state numbers currently are mostly like his his national numbers — which was the case for previous frontrunners who went on to win their party’s nomination.”

“Leading in all the early states at this point has historically been a fairly good sign. Dating back to 1980 (the year in which we start getting solid state polling data), nine candidates in competitive primaries have led in polling around this point in the cycle in both Iowa and New Hampshire. All but one candidate (Ted Kennedy in 1980) who led in Iowa and New Hampshire would go on to win their party’s nomination.”