Steven Rattner looks at three different election models which predict Donald Trump wins the 2020 presidential election.
- Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, “found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes.”
- Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, “has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them.”
- Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics “has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College.”
Use the interactive Electoral Vote Map to make your own forecast.
