Why the Early States Still Matter

Jonathan Bernstein: “The nomination contest is a national process. Candidates seek valuable resources – money, endorsements, staff and more – in a national setting. That’s been true for as long as the current system has been in place; it’s changed some over the years, but fundamentally it’s the same as it was in the 1980s. Fail to gather enough resources? Then your candidacy might die long before voters in Iowa get involved. Remember, a dozen or so politicians who did candidate-like things have already dropped out of the 2020 race; Iowa and New Hampshire didn’t knock them out.”

“After each early state votes, moreover, what matters isn’t so much how many delegates each candidate won, but how the results are interpreted nationally. How party actors react will be critical, and how the national media covers the results in Iowa will affect what happens in New Hampshire.”