Beware of 2020 Predictions

Matt Taibbi: “Trump’s thin Electoral College win against Hillary Clinton was a similar story. One of the most amazing stats from Election Day was that around one in six of Trump’s voters in November 2016 actively disapproved of him. This allowed him to enter the White House with a ridiculously low 38 percent approval rating.”

“What predictions can you possibly make in a political environment so saturated with ambivalence and pessimism that a person with a 38 percent approval rating can win the presidency? The answer should be none, or nothing obvious.”

“2016 was an indication that voters had traveled so far off the reservation that any choices they made going forward were likely to be hard to predict.”