It’s the Days After the Debate That Matter Most

Lynn Vavreck: “As you prepare to watch the first primary debate Wednesday-Thursday (and the 11 to follow), let go of the notion that any single moment is going to shift the state of the race overnight. That is not to say that debates aren’t important, but real consequences tend to emerge only in the days and weeks after the debate as the news media, candidates and voters react.”

“It’s easy to believe the stakes are high. Tens of millions of people watch. Opponents take aim at one another. Anything can happen. Some famous debate moments include Gerald Ford’s comment that ‘there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe’; Michael Dukakis’s emotionless response on whether he would support the death penalty if his wife were raped and murdered; Ronald Reagan’s quip that ‘I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.'”

“Data suggests, however, that none of these memorable moments changed election outcomes.”