The Democratic Race Is Still Wide Open

Jonathan Bernstein: “The lineups are set for the next round of Democratic debates, and the media seems to be settling on a storyline. There are four candidates who matter, the story goes: Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who will meet on July 30, and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, who will face off the next night. Oh, and eight other candidates will be on stage each night, but all of them, with the possible exception of Pete Buttigieg, are no longer serious contenders.”

“Those candidates were the top five in second-quarter fundraising, after all, and they sit in the top five spots in national polls. It’s true that usually, by this point in the campaign, that group will include the eventual nominee.”

“And yet… I’m far from convinced that those are the five most likely to win, or that only five have a reasonable chance.  I’m not sure that ‘usually’ applies to this cycle, mainly because of the mix of candidates. Each of the leaders has significant vulnerabilities – and some of the contenders who haven’t fired in the polls yet have assets that could yet matter.”